The effects of infant deaths on the risk of subsequent birth: a comparative analysis of DHS data from Ghana and Kenya.

This paper examines the conditions under which there might be a strong or weak relationship between childhood mortality and fertility at the micro level. The premise is that as a society undergoes transition during which a conscious effort is made to space and limit birth, the effect associated with infant death on the risk of subsequent birth reduces. Using the 1998 DHS data from Ghana and Kenya, our multivariate hazard models show that women who have experienced infant deaths tend to have a higher risk of subsequent births than those without any infant deaths at all parities studied in both countries. In a comparative context, however, the magnitude of the effect associated with infant death was weaker in Kenya at all parities, corroborating the hypothesis that the effect indeed reduces in the course of transition. Besides infant deaths, other demographic, socioeconomic and sociocultural factors were also found to associate with the risk of births. The limitations and policy implications of the findings are discussed.