Endoscopic response predicts for survival and organ preservation after primary chemoradiotherapy for esophageal cancer.

Purpose: To determine the role of endoscopic surveillance in predicting organ preservation and survival after primary chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for esophageal cancer.

Materials And Methods: Fifty-six consecutive patients with nonmetastatic esophageal cancer were treated with primary CRT between May 1993 and April 1999 with curative intent and subsequent surveillance with endoscopy and CT scans. Patients with residual disease on endoscopy and/or CT 6 weeks after CRT were considered for immediate esophagectomy. The remaining patients continued endoscopic surveillance and were considered for esophagectomy only when local relapse was detected. Five-year survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify significant factors associated with disease-specific survival.

Results: With a median follow-up of 62 months, the 5-year overall and disease-specific survival was 30% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 17%-43%) and 37% (95% CI: 22%-50%), respectively. Fourteen of 24 (58%) patients who survived more than 2 years did not require an esophagectomy. On univariate analysis, favorable prognostic factors for disease-specific survival were female gender (p = 0.026), CT-defined N(0) status (p = 0.027), and negative endoscopy at 6 weeks after CRT (p < 0.0001). On multivariate analysis, N(0) status and negative endoscopy after CRT remained significant (p = 0.03 and p < 0.0001, respectively) for disease-specific survival. On multivariate analysis for overall survival, female gender and negative endoscopy were significant (p = 0.35 and p < 0.001, respectively). The hazard ratios for disease-specific survival with positive nodal status and positive endoscopy were 2.44 (95% CI: 1.14-5.3) and 5.18 (95% CI: 2.3-11.6), respectively.

Conclusions: Endoscopic response after primary CRT for esophageal cancer was the most significant predictive factor for overall and disease-specific survival. Regular endoscopic surveillance after CRT achieved survival rates comparable to other strategies and successfully preserved the esophagus in the majority of patients who survived more than 2 years.