A conceptual model is presented for determining which currently prescribed pharmaceutical compounds are most likely to be found in sewage, and for estimating their concentrations, both in raw sewage and after successive stages of secondary sewage treatment. A ranking of the "top-50" pharmaceutical compounds (by total mass dispensed) in Australia over the 1998 calendar year was prepared. Information on the excretion ratios and some metabolites of the pharmaceuticals enabled prediction of the overall rates of excretion into Australian sewage. Mass-balance and fugacity modelling, applied to sewage generation and to a sewage treatment plant, allowed calculation of predicted concentrations of the compounds in raw, primary and secondary treated sewage effluents. Twenty nine of the modelled pharmaceutical residuals were predicted to be present in raw sewage influent at concentrations of 1 microgl(-1) or greater. Twenty of the compounds were predicted to remain in secondary effluent at concentrations of 1 microgl(-1) or greater.
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