Evaluation of the POSSUM scoring system for comparative audit in pancreatic surgery.

Background: Wide variations exist in the reported morbidity and mortality rates for major pancreatic resections. The Physiological and Operative Scoring System for enUmeration of Morbidity and mortality (POSSUM) was developed for comparative audit in general surgical patients. It has also been found to be reliable for audit in colorectal, thoracic and vascular surgery with minor modifications.

Aims: To evaluate POSSUM and its modification for mortality, P-POSSUM, in pancreatic surgery.

Methods: Retrospective analysis of 50 patients undergoing partial pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) (46 tumours, 4 chronic pancreatitis) using the POSSUM and P-POSSUM as predictors of morbidity and mortality. These were then compared with the observed values.

Results: The POSSUM-predicted mortality was 26%. The P-POSSUM predicted a mortality risk of 6%. The observed mortality was 4%. Using POSSUM for morbidity, the predicted value was 76%. The observed morbidity was 46%. The risk scores for patients with and without morbidity were similar (66.4 +/- 11.0 vs. 68.8 +/- 12.9, p = 0.49).

Conclusions: While P-POSSUM appeared satisfactory for predicting mortality risk, POSSUM overestimated morbidity and mortality for PD in a specialist centre. Modifications are needed prior to its application for comparative audit in pancreatic surgery.