Effects of malnutrition on child survival in China as estimated by PROFILES.

Objective: To estimate the benefits of reductions in underweight and Vitamin A deficiency for child survival in China that might be expected as a result of lowering the prevalence of these conditions.

Methods: Profiles, a process of nutrition policy analysis was used to quantify the functional consequences of malnutrition in terms of child survival.

Results: Underweight: The actual reduction in underweight between 1992 and 2001 (from 15.7% to the current 10.1%) resulted in saving of 176,000 child lives. As estimated, without improvements, 612,000 children will die due to underweight between 2001 and 2010, 281,000 (46%) of them living in western provinces. Reducing underweight prevalence from 10.1% to 8% could overall save 62,000 lives. The reduction of underweight prevalence in the west alone might save 56,000 lives. Vitamin A in China as a whole, vitamin A deficiency accounts, as estimated, for 7.5% of deaths of children 6-59 months old, representing 206,000 deaths over the past ten years. Halving the prevalence over the period would save 49,000 child lives. The higher prevalence and higher mortality rates in western provinces mean that even with only 28% of the Chinese population, over half of child deaths there are related to vitamin A.