Background: In heart failure (HF), it is not known whether analysis of serial changes in prognostic parameters provides incremental information with respect to comprehensive isolated clinical and instrumental assessments.
Methods: We analyzed time-related changes in a period > or =6 months in a broad panel of clinical and instrumental (electrocardiographic, echocardiographic, hemodynamic, and cardiopulmonary) parameters in 105 patients with HF (age, 53 +/- 10 years; 88% men; 55% New York Heart Association classification III-IV; EF, 24% +/- 6%).
Results: Among the time-related parameters, QRS widening (adjusted RR per 10 ms, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.10-1.48; P =.003) and peak oxygen uptake (pVO2) decrease (adjusted RR per mL/Kg/min, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.22; P =.034) provided independent, incremental information for predicting cardiac death/need for heart transplantation (CD/HT) with respect to the entire panel of isolated readings. The overall rate of CD/HT-free survival after 12 months was 60% +/- 5%. Patients who were clinically stable with QRS widening and pVO2 decrease values of <10% had a better CD/HT event-free survival rate at 1 year (92% +/- 5% vs 50% +/- 6%; P <.001).
Conclusions: This study indicates that analysis of time-related changes in prognostic parameters provides relevant incremental prognostic information and may help in the risk stratification of patients with HF and the selection of candidates for HT. In particular, patients who were clinically stable and had QRS widening and a pVO2 decreases <10% in a period > or =6 months appear to be characterized by a good prognosis and may not be suitable candidates for HT.
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