[Quantitative assessment of risks for coronary heart diseases in urban residents in Sichuan].

Objective: To set a quantitative criteria for determining risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) so that potential risk of an individual dying from CHD can be identified and to lay a foundation for predicting individual risk of CHD.

Methods: Data of case-control and cohort studies published during 1978 to 2002, as well as data of surveillance of behavior exposure in Sichuan province, were collected by retrieval of literatures. Pooled odds ratios (OR) and relative risks (RR) of all risk factors for CHD were estimated using various statistical models with software for meta-analysis, and attributable risk fractions of varied levels of risk factors could be converted.

Results: A risk score conversion table (quantitative criteria for assessment) of main risk factors for CHD were developed for men and women aged 15 - 69 at an interval of five years, including smoking, passive smoking, hypertension, high blood cholesterol level, body mass index, lack of physical activity, alcohol drinking, past history of diabetes, and family history of CHD and hypertension. Individuals with all these risk factors had a risk score beyond 1.00, and risk score for those without them was equal to or below 1.00, which would increase with rise in one's risk level.

Conclusions: Estimation of risk of dying from CHD was based on risk score conversion table of risk factors for CHD, which could be used to predict individual potential risk of dying from CHD in the following 10 years. It lays a foundation for health education to persuade people to change their unhealthy lifestyles and behaviors, and could be used in community health services.