[The anaylsis of mortality rate according to CTP score and MELD score in patients with liver cirrhosis].

Background/aims: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) consists of serum bilirubin and creatinine levels, International Normalized Ratio (INR) for prothrombin time, and etiology of liver disease. The MELD score is a reliable measurement of mortality risk and is suitable for a disease severity index in patients with end-stage liver disease. We examined the validity of the MELD as a disease severity index for patients with end-stage liver disease.

Methods: We investigated the 379 patients with liver cirrhosis hospitalized between January 1995 and May 2001. We retrospectively reviewed the hospital records to verify the diagnosis of cirrhosis and to collect exact patient information about their demographic data, portal hypertensive complications and laboratory data. The ability to classify patients with liver cirrhosis according to their risk of death was examined using the concordance c-statistic.

Results: The MELD score performed well in predicting death within 3 months with a c-statistic of 0.73 with etiology and 0.71 without etiology. The significant clinical, laboratory variables on 3 month survival in patients with liver cirrhosis are serum bilirubin, ascites and hepatic encephalopathy. The addition of portal hypertensive complications to the MELD score did not improve the accuracy of the MELD score.

Conclusions: The MELD score is a useful disease severity index for the patients with end-stage liver disease and provides reliable measurement of short term survival over a wide range of liver disease severity and diverse etiology.