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Identify the underlying true model from other models for clinical practice using model performance measures.

BMC Med Res Methodol

January 2025

School of Mathematical Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005, People's Republic of China.

Objective: To assess whether the outcome generation true model could be identified from other candidate models for clinical practice with current conventional model performance measures considering various simulation scenarios and a CVD risk prediction as exemplar.

Study Design And Setting: Thousands of scenarios of true models were used to simulate clinical data, various candidate models and true models were trained on training datasets and then compared on testing datasets with 25 conventional use model performance measures. This consists of univariate simulation (179.

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The inherent heterogeneity of tumor cells impedes the development of targeted therapies for specific glioblastoma (GBM) subtypes. This study aims to investigate the mesenchymal subtype of GBM to uncover detailed characteristics, potential therapeutic strategies, and improve precision treatment for GBM patients. We integrated single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq), single-nucleus assay for transposase-accessible chromatin sequencing (snATAC-seq), and bulk RNA sequencing datasets to identify core gene modules, candidate therapeutic drugs, and key transcription factors specific to mesenchymal subtype GBM tumor cells which we validated in vitro and human samples.

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Tolerance on trial.

Science

December 2024

H. Holden Thorp Editor-in-Chief, Science journals.

Next year will mark the 100th anniversary of the Scopes trial, a 1925 court case in the US state of Tennessee on the teaching of evolution in public schools. John Scopes was tried for violating the Butler Act, a state rule that declared unlawful any teaching that denied the creation of man according to the Bible. The highly publicized event put an intense spotlight on William Jennings Bryan, a populist presidential candidate and religious fundamentalist who was counsel for the government, and on Clarence Darrow, a liberal agnostic and social justice advocate who defended Scopes.

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We explore an augmented democracy system built on off-the-shelf large language models (LLMs) fine-tuned to augment data on citizens' preferences elicited over policies extracted from the government programmes of the two main candidates of Brazil's 2022 presidential election. We use a train-test cross-validation set-up to estimate the accuracy with which the LLMs predict both: a subject's individual political choices and the aggregate preferences of the full sample of participants. At the individual level, we find that LLMs predict out of sample preferences more accurately than a 'bundle rule', which would assume that citizens always vote for the proposals of the candidate aligned with their self-reported political orientation.

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Hindsight bias - also known as the knew-it-all-along effect - is a ubiquitous judgment error affecting decision makers. Hindsight bias has been shown to vary across age groups and as a function of contextual factors, such as the decision maker's emotional state. Despite theoretical reasons why emotions might have a stronger impact on hindsight bias in older than in younger adults, age differences in hindsight bias for emotional events remain relatively underexplored.

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