Biochemical markers of bone and cartilage remodeling in prediction of longterm progression of knee osteoarthritis.

Objective: To investigate the relationship between biochemical markers of bone and cartilage remodeling and severity or progression (symptoms and structure) of knee osteoarthritis (OA).

Methods: Mean and minimal joint space width (JSW) of the femorotibial joint were measured from standardized radiographs taken at baseline and at the end of a 3-year longitudinal study of patients with knee OA. Pain, stiffness, and physical function subscales of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) index were assessed at the same time points. Biochemical markers [serum keratan sulfate (KS), serum hyaluronic acid (HA), urine pyridinoline (PYD) and deoxypyridinoline (DPD), serum osteocalcin (OC), cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP)] were assessed at baseline and after 1 year.

Results: At baseline, no significant correlations were observed between values of biochemical markers and JSW or any of the WOMAC scores. Baseline markers were not correlated with 3-year percentage changes observed in mean or minimal JSW and WOMAC scores. Changes observed after 1 year in OC and HA were significantly correlated with 3-year progression in mean JSW (r = -0.24, p = 0.04 and r = 0.27, p = 0.02, respectively) and in minimal JSW (r = -0.31, p = 0.01 and r = 0.24, p = 0.04, respectively). In patients from the lowest quartile of 1-year changes in HA (< -21.22 ng/ml), mean JSW decreased after 3 years by 0.76 (1.23) mm compared to an increase of 0.11 (0.83) mm in patients in the highest quartile (> +14.34 ng/ml) (p = 0.03).

Conclusion: The 3-year radiological progression of knee OA could be predicted by a 1-year increase in OC or a 1-year decrease in HA levels.