Increases in adult mortality after age 45 are examined using a Monte Carlo-type simulation model based on data for Norwegian generations from 1866 to 1916. "In this model, the observed mortality of a generation depends upon two variables: 1) the risk of dying in the mortality strata for each individual at a certain time; 2) the level of deterioration of each person as given by the distribution of the individuals in the different mortality strata." Results suggest that the increase in the risk of dying after the age of 45 is due to two causes, namely, an increase in the percentage of weaker individuals (natural selection) and a change in life-style patterns, which include alcohol and tobacco consumption, nutrition, and physical exercise (cultural selection). (summary in ENG, ITA)
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