This article presents a model-based evaluation of a program designed to reduce HIV transmission from HIV-infected Ethiopian immigrants in Israel. Rather than rely on self-reported variables such as condom use, this study's approach focuses on pregnancy rate reduction, estimated from administrative periodic reporting data, as a measure of unprotected sexual exposure. The models show that among both HIV+ women and the female sex partners of HIV+ men, the ongoing pregnancy rates estimated during the intervention were significantly lower than the estimated baseline pregnancy rates, suggesting reductions in unprotected sexual exposures among those participating in the program.
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