Development of hypertension over 6 years in a birth cohort of young middle-aged men: the Cardiovascular Risk Factor Study in southern Sweden (CRISS).

Objectives: To explore the development of hypertension (HT) in a cohort of young middle-aged men.

Design: Prospective birth-cohort study of men surveyed over 6 years.

Setting: Helsingborg County Hospital, Sweden, 1990-97.

Subjects: A total of 628 men born in 1953-54, all surveyed at 37, 40 and 43 years of age.

Main Outcome Measures: Systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), S-cholesterol, body mass index (BMI), alcohol consumption, ethnicity. HT was defined as SBP > or = 140 mmHg and/or DBP > or = 90 mmHg, or ongoing treatment. Using SBP < 130 mmHg and DBP < 85 mmHg as reference, the odds of conversion to HT in men with high normal blood pressure (BP) (SBP 130-139 mmHg and DBP 85-89 mmHg) was investigated.

Results: At age 37, 243 men (39%) had reference BP, 167 (26%) had high normal BP and 218 (35%) were hypertensive. Corresponding numbers at age 40 were 265 (42%), 166 (27%) and 197 (31%); and at age 43, 180 (29%), 142 (22%) and 306 (49%), respectively. High normal BP at baseline was associated with the development of HT both at age 40 (odds ratio (OR)=2.45 confidence interval (CI): 1.42-4.22) and at age 43 (OR=2.46, CI: 1.59-3.80), independent of other cardiovascular disease risk factors and ethnicity. The progression to HT was predicted also by S-cholesterol, alcohol consumption, BMI and weight gain.

Conclusions: Over a short-term period, a substantial proportion of young middle-aged men with high normal BP develop HT with overweight and alcohol consumption as important determinants. These findings have implications for the prevention, screening and medical care of HT in this target population.