Risk factors for lethal outcome in patients with bullous pemphigoid: low serum albumin level, high dosage of glucocorticosteroids, and old age.

Background: Although bullous pemphigoid (BP) is the most frequent autoimmune bullous disease and is associated with a considerable case-fatality rate, little is known about factors that influence its prognosis.

Objective: To identify prognostic factors for lethal outcome in the first year after the initial hospitalization in patients with BP.

Design: A multicenter retrospective cohort study.

Setting: Seven dermatologic university hospitals in Germany.

Participants: A total of 369 patients diagnosed as having BP between January 1, 1987, and December 31, 1997.

Statistics: Univariate (Kaplan-Meier) and multivariate (Cox regression) analysis.

Results: Of the 369 patients with BP, 209 (57%) died, 106 (29%) within the first year after hospitalization. Fifty-four percent were women. The mean +/- SD age at entry was 77.3 +/- 11.1 years. The patients with BP were followed up to 10.5 years, with a median time of 1.8 years to death or interview (25th and 75th quartiles, 0.5 and 4.0 years). The major risk factors for lethal outcome in the first year after hospitalization were an increased age, with a multivariate risk estimate of 3.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9-5.2) for age greater than 80.4 years (median); a daily glucocorticosteroid dosage of more than 37 mg (75th quartile) at discharge, with a multivariate risk estimate of 2.5 (95% CI, 1.5-4.3); serum albumin levels of 3.6 g/dL or less (25th quartile), with a multivariate risk estimate of 2.6 (95% CI, 1.5-4.4); and an erythrocyte sedimentation rate greater than 30 mm/h (75th quartile), with a multivariate risk estimate of 1.7 (95% CI, 1.1-2.8).

Conclusions: There is a considerable case-fatality rate in patients with BP. Older patients who require a higher dosage of oral glucocorticosteroids at hospital discharge and who have low serum albumin levels are at greater risk of death within the first year after hospitalization. These prognostic factors should be considered in the care of patients with BP as well as in the design of future clinical trials.