Durability of HIV-1 viral suppression over 3.3 years with multi-drug antiretroviral therapy in previously drug-naive individuals.

Background: Relatively little is known about the long-term durability of viral suppression in individuals initially achieving a viral load of less than 50 copies/ml within 24 weeks of starting antiretroviral therapy, nor the extent to which therapy interruption accounts for the loss of suppression.

Methods: We intensely followed all 336 antiretroviral-naive patients attending the Goethe Universitat Clinic who began multi-drug combination regimens and in whom a viral load of less than 50 copies/ml was achieved within 24 weeks, in order to assess the risk of viral load rebound. Inspection of case notes allowed the distinction of viral rebound according to whether there was an associated complete interruption of therapy.

Results: A total of 61 patients experienced viral rebound during 543.1 person-years of follow-up, giving a 25.3% risk of rebound by 3.3 years from first achieving viral suppression. However, for 47 of the patients with viral rebound there was an associated documented complete interruption of antiretroviral therapy, mostly as a result of co-morbidities, leaving 14 who appear to represent a failure of the virological efficacy of therapy (viral breakthrough; 5.2% risk by 3.3 years). The risk of viral breakthrough declined with the increased duration of suppression (P = 0.01).

Conclusion: The intrinsic virological effectiveness of multi-drug antiretroviral therapy in previously drug-naive individuals appears to be such that viral suppression, once achieved, can be maintained for several years in patients not interrupting therapy. The major challenge is to develop regimens that can be taken consistently and safely for such long periods of time.