Comparison of logistic regression and neural networks to predict rehospitalization in patients with stroke.

Context: Rehospitalization following inpatient medical rehabilitation has important health and economic implications for patients who have experienced a stroke.

Objective: Compare logistic regression and neural networks in predicting rehospitalization at 3-6-month follow-up for patients with stroke discharged from medical rehabilitation.

Design: The study was retrospective using information from a national database representative of medical rehabilitation patients across the US.

Setting: Information submitted to the Uniform Data System for Medical Rehabilitation from 1997 and 1998 by 167 hospital and rehabilitation facilities from 40 states was examined.

Participants: 9584 patient records were included in the sample. The mean age was 70.74 years (SD = 12.87). The sample included 51.6% females and was 77.6% non-Hispanic White with an average length of stay of 21.47 days (SD = 15.47).

Main Outcome Measures: Hospital readmission from 80 to 180 days following discharge.

Results: Statistically significant variables (P <.05) in the logistic model included sphincter control, self-care ability, age, marital status, ethnicity and length of stay. Area under the ROC curves were 0.68 and 0.74 for logistic regression and neural network analysis, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit chi-square was 11.32 (df = 8, P = 0.22) for neural network analysis and 16.33 (df = 8, P = 0.11) for logistic regression. Calibration curves indicated a slightly better fit for the neural network model.

Conclusion: There was no statistically significant or practical advantage in predicting hospital readmission using neural network analysis in comparison to logistic regression for persons who experienced a stroke and received medical rehabilitation during the period of the study.