Predicting state Medicaid home and community based waiver participants and expenditures, 1992-1997.

Purpose: The study examined trends and predictors of state Medicaid home and community based waiver participants and expenditures from 1992 to 1997 to identify factors of interest to policy makers and clinicians.

Design And Methods: HCFA Form 372 data were collected from state officials for each waiver for each year. Two separate regression analyses were conducted to examine the effects of sociodemographic, economic, political, policy, and health services on state waiver participants and expenditures.

Results: State waiver participants were positively associated with those aged 85 and over, personal income, residential care beds, and inpatient users and negatively with home health regulation and nursing home beds. State waiver expenditures were positively associated with democratic governors, personal income, home health reimbursement methods, Medicaid eligibility, home health agencies, and Medicare home health users.

Implications: The factors policy makers might consider changing include increasing the number of residential care beds and home health agencies, removing certificate of need for home health care, using Medicare home health reimbursement methods for Medicaid, and raising the Medicaid eligibility criteria. In some states with low nursing home occupancy rates, reducing the supply of nursing home beds may also be considered. All of these approaches would be controversial and should be based on additional cost-effectiveness analysis.