Morning cortisol as a risk factor for subsequent major depressive disorder in adult women.

Background: Whether individual differences in cortisol contribute to subsequent major depressive disorder (MDD) is unknown.

Aims: To determine whether premorbid levels of salivary cortisol and dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) were associated with subsequent MDD and how these related to psychosocial factors known to increase the risk for MDD.

Method: Adult women (n=116) were recruited from general practices. None was currently depressed; 83 were 'psychosocially vulnerable' to MDD, 33 were not. Salivary steroids (cortisol and DHEA at 08.00 h and 20.00 h), recent life events, current mood and social support were assessed at entry. Onset of MDD was recorded during 13 months' follow-up.

Results: There were no associations between salivary cortisol or DHEA and recent life events or vulnerability. Twenty-eight onsets of MDD occurred during the follow-up period. This was associated with: severe adverse life events and difficulties during the follow-up period; mean morning cortisol levels at entry; and the presence of any of three vulnerability factors.

Conclusions: Individual differences in morning salivary cortisol levels may represent an independent risk factor for subsequent MDD. The origin of these differences in cortisol is not yet understood.