Simulated economic consequences of foot-and-mouth disease epidemics and their public control in France.

The efficient management of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemics in France was examined through a simulation model which combines epidemiological and economic modules. From the reactions of the importing countries in terms of the products subject to import bans and the regionalization commitments, the economic module assesses the financial consequences of FMD outbreaks borne not only by the breeding sector but also by the other economic sectors on regional and national levels. Among the control options for FMD, the strategy of stamping out infected herds and dangerous in-contact herds most often contributes to reducing the economic consequences of FMD epidemics. Implementing a campaign of emergency vaccination is socially optimal if the additional export losses associated with the delay of slaughtering the vaccinated animals are offset by the gains of reducing the duration of the FMD epidemic. The importance of reducing as much as possible the total duration of the import bans is stressed by the estimated cost of an extra week of import bans. The optimal control strategy was unaffected by the introduction of stochastic parameters.