Trends of AIDS in Guadeloupe (French West Indies) a longitudinal survey from 1988 to 1997.

The study objective was to describe morbidity and mortality from HIV infection and the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Guadeloupe from 1988 to 1997 and to evaluate survival and prognostic factors. The HIV infected patients database of Guadeloupe included 1771 adult patients up to December 31, 1997. Annual incidence of AIDS defining illnesses was calculated and compared using Poisson regression. Survival analysis with log-rank test and multivariate analysis with Cox's model were performed for patients with AIDS. At the end of December 1997, 599 cases of AIDS (33.8%) and 367 deaths (20.7%) were reported. For 32.1% of the patients, AIDS was diagnosed before inclusion. Incidence of most AIDS-defining events decreased over time, especially after the introduction of protease inhibitor therapy. Before the introduction of protease inhibitors in September 1996, overall median survival after AIDS diagnosis was 11.8 months (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 95% CI 10.2-14.1). After this date median survival increased to 17.8 months (95% CI 18.6-22.5) and probability of survival was significantly higher for patients treated with protease inhibitor in combination regimen (mean 19.0 months, Standard deviation (SD) 1.3) compared to those who were not (mean 7.9 months, SD 0.6, p < 0.0001). Prognosis factors of death after AIDS were older age (Relative Hazard, RH: 1.17, 95% CI 1.07-1.28), occurrence of two or more AIDS-defining events at the beginning of the disease (RH: 1.70, 95% CI 1.32-2.19), and a CD4 cell count less than 50/mm3 (RH: 2.33, 95% CI 1.71-3.17). On the other hand, occurrence of AIDS during follow-up had a better prognosis (RH: 0.68, 95% CI 0.52-0.89) and protease inhibitor therapy was strongly associated with a longer survival (RH 0.26, 95% CI 0.13-0.53). We concluded that HIV infection in Guadeloupe was frequently diagnosed at the stage of AIDS. However, survival of patients and trends of major AIDS defining illnesses were more similar to the European pattern than to the Caribbean one, as a consequence of the availability of modern therapy.