This study describes rates and correlates of disease progression and survival among 194 female sex workers in northern Thailand who were infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1; 96% with subtype E). The median rate of CD4 T lymphocyte decline (3.9 cells/microL/month), median time from infection to <200 CD4 T lymphocytes/microL (6.9 years), and time to 25% mortality (6.0 years) were similar to those found in studies performed in Western countries before highly active antiretroviral therapy was available to populations infected with HIV-1 subtype B. Mortality rates among women with >100,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL were 15.4 times higher (95% confidence interval, 5.2-45.2) than among women with <10,000 copies. Initial CD4 T lymphocyte counts and serum virus load were independently strong predictors of survival. These results can help in assessing the effects of the epidemic in Thailand and in determining the prognoses for individual patients.
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