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Decision-making under flood predictions: A risk perception study of coastal real estate.
Risk Anal
January 2025
School of the Environment, Coventry University, Coventry, UK.
Flood models, while representing our best knowledge of a natural phenomenon, are continually evolving. Their predictions, albeit undeniably important for flood risk management, contain considerable uncertainties related to model structure, parameterization, and input data. With multiple sources of flood predictions becoming increasingly available through online flood maps, the uncertainties in these predictions present considerable risks related to property devaluation.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFValue-Based Pricing for Drugs With Uncertain Clinical Benefits.
Health Econ
January 2025
Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
Policymakers can use cost-effectiveness analysis to set value-based prices (VBP) for new pharmaceuticals. However, the uncertainty of investigational drug benefits complicates this pricing strategy. Such complexity stems from decision-makers' risk aversion and the potential change in the estimated value with emerging evidence.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFObjectives: Intensive care unit (ICU) clinicians stop antibiotics more often, with a negative infection: point-of-care test (PCR-POCT). Simulated cases of diagnostic uncertainty regarding infection resolution led clinicians to choose options such as procalcitonin (PCT) and/or PCR-POCTs +/- de-escalation to aid stop decisions. We hypothesised that a direct infection indicator, PCR-POCT, would influence stop judgements more than indirect PCT.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFHybrid stochastic and robust optimization of a hybrid system with fuel cell for building electrification using an improved arithmetic optimization algorithm.
Sci Rep
January 2025
Radiological Techniques Department, College of Health and Medical Techniques, AL-Mustaqbal University, Hillah, Babil, 51001, Iraq.
This paper proposes a hybrid stochastic-robust optimization framework for sizing a photovoltaic/tidal/fuel cell (PV/TDL/FC) system to meet an annual educational building demand based on hydrogen storage via unscented transformation (UT), and information gap decision theory-based risk-averse strategy (IGDT-RA). The hybrid framework integrates the strengths of UT for scenario generation and IGDT-RA (hybrid UT-IGDT-RA) for optimizing the system robustness and maximum uncertainty radius (MRU) of building energy demand and renewable resource generation. The deterministic model focuses on minimizing the cost of energy production over the project's lifespan (CEPLS) and considers a reliability constraint defined as the demand shortage probability (DSHP).
View Article and Find Full Text PDFPerceived fatigue does not alter effort-based decision making but does undermine confidence in the ability to perform physical actions.
Physiol Behav
December 2024
Cardiff University Brain Research Imaging Centre (CUBRIC), Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK; Department of Neuroscience, Brighton and Sussex Medical School, University of Sussex, UK.
Fatigue may affect the decision to deploy effort (cost) for a given rewarded outcome (benefit). However, it remains unclear whether these fatigue-associated changes can be attributed to simply feeling fatigued. To investigate this question, twenty-two healthy males made a series of choices between two rewarded options: a fixed, no effort option, where no physical effort was required to obtain a set, low reward vs.
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