Simulation models in the planning of health care facilities: an application in the case of neonatal extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

Objectives: To investigate whether modelling techniques can be used in the planning of health care facilities for patients requiring neonatal extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO).

Methods: In a micro-simulation model the number of patients that will have to be referred to facilities abroad is estimated for any number of neonatal ECMO patients presenting annually for treatment in The Netherlands, and any number of ECMO facilities. The inputs to the model consist of the number of ECMO facilities, the number of patients presenting annually, the duration of treatment and the date on which patients present for ECMO treatment. The model is estimated on data from The Netherlands for 1992, during which 29 patients were treated in three facilities. Several future scenarios are modelled, principally one in which a potential increase to 56 patients per year is foreseen.

Results: The model indicates that, if such an increase takes place, no additional ECMO facilities will be necessary in The Netherlands if between three and four referrals annually to centres outside the region (or abroad) are considered acceptable and feasible. In that situation, it is expected that on 22 occasions each year two patients will be treated simultaneously, for a total of 81 days. On ten occasions, all three facilities will be occupied at the same time, for 21 days in total. On 199 days, at least one of the facilities will be occupied.

Conclusion: The current study shows that the acceptability and feasibility of patient referrals to ECMO centres abroad is an important issue which health care planners will have to consider. The study also shows that modelling techniques can provide information that is useful to policy-makers in the planning of health care facilities.