A survey of Newcastle disease in Swiss laying-hen flocks using serological testing and simulation modelling.

Newcastle disease (ND) is a highly contagious viral disease of birds particularly domestic poultry. Switzerland is currently declared free from ND; since vaccination is prohibited, the detection of antibodies against ND virus (NDV) results in the destruction of the respective flock (stamping-out policy). However, in 1995 and 1996, antibody-positive flocks were detected and sporadic ND outbreaks even occurred in Switzerland. Therefore, a serosurvey was done to look for evidence of NDV infections in Swiss laying-hen flocks. The survey was designed to provide 95% confidence of detecting at least one seropositive flock if the flock prevalence were 1%. Thirty blood samples from each of 260 commercial laying-hen flocks were collected during 1996 in a central poultry slaughterhouse. Sera were screened for NDV antibodies with a commercial blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Samples with a questionable or positive test result were retested with the same ELISA. A stochastic computer model was applied to define a cut-off number of test-positive samples to help to differentiate between true- and false-positive flocks and to estimate the true flock prevalence of infection. Four flocks were identified as NDV-seropositive and the NDV true seroprevalence among commercial laying-hen flocks in Switzerland was most likely between 1.35 and 1.55%. This indicates that Swiss laying-hen and parental flocks with more than 150 animals have been in contact with strains of NDV that cause subclinical infection in chicken, because no clinical symptoms have been observed. In this context, computer simulation was a useful technique to interpret survey results.