Impact of COVID-19 Interventions on Respiratory and Intestinal Infectious Disease Notifications - Jiangsu Province, China, 2020-2023.

Introduction: Many measures implemented to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have reshaped the epidemic patterns of other infectious diseases. This study estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases and potential changes following reopening.

Methods: The optimal intervention and counterfactual models were selected from the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), neural network autoregression (NNAR), and hybrid models based on the minimum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in the test set.

Establishment and validation of a clinical risk scoring model to predict fatal risk in SFTS hospitalized patients.

Background: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging tick-borne infection with a high case fatality rate. Significant gaps remain in studies analyzing the clinical characteristics of fatal cases.

Methods: From January 2017 to June 2023, 427 SFTS cases were included in this study.

Estimate the number of lives saved by a SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign in six states in the United States with a simple model.

Objectives: Vaccination and the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant changed the fate of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is very challenging to estimate the number of lives saved by vaccination given the multiple doses of vaccination, the time-varying nature of transmissibility, the waning of immunity, and the presence of immune evasion.

Methods: We established a S-S-E-I-T-D-R model to simulate the number of lives saved by vaccination in six states in the United States (U.

Exploring the seasonality and optimal control strategy of HIV/AIDS epidemic in China: The impact of seasonal testing.

In this work, we investigate how the seasonal variation in the number of individuals who are tested for an HIV antibody in outpatient clinics affects the HIV transmission patterns in China, which has not been well studied. Based on the characteristics of outpatient testing data and reported cases, we establish a periodic infectious disease model to study the impact of seasonal testing on HIV transmission. The results indicate that the seasonal testing is a driving factor for the seasonality of new cases.

Association between ambient temperature and influenza prevalence: A nationwide time-series analysis in 201 Chinese cities from 2013 to 2018.

Background: Temperature affects influenza transmission; however, currently, limited evidence exists about its effect in China at the national and city levels as well as how temperature can be integrated into influenza interventions.

Methods: Meteorological, pollutant, and influenza data from 201 cities in mainland China between 2013 and 2018 were analyzed at both the city and national levels to investigate the relationship between temperature and influenza prevalence. We examined the impact of temperature on the time-varying reproduction number (R) using generalized additive quasi-Poisson regression models combined with the distributed lag nonlinear model.

Relative effectiveness of a heterologous booster dose with adenovirus type 5 vectored COVID-19 vaccine versus three doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccine in adults during a nationwide outbreak of omicron predominance, in China: a retrospective, individually matched cohort-control study.

Effectiveness of heterologous booster regimes with ad5 vectored COVID-19 vaccine in a large, diverse population during the national-scale outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 omicron predominance in China has not been reported, yet. We conducted a large-scale cohort-control study in six provinces in China, and did a retrospective survey on the COVID-19 attack risk during this outbreak. Participant aged ≥18 years in five previous trials who were primed with 1 to 3 doses of ICV received heterologous booster with either intramuscular or orally inhaled ad5 vectored COVID-19 vaccine were included in the heterologous-trial cohort.

Global analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with an application to Jiangsu, China.

Diagnostic delay for TB infected individuals and the lack of TB vaccines for adults are the main challenges to achieve the goals of WHO by 2050. In order to evaluate the impacts of diagnostic delay and vaccination for adults on prevalence of TB, we propose an age-structured model with latent age and infection age, and we incorporate Mycobacterium TB in the environment and vaccination into the model. Diagnostic delay is indicated by the age of infection before receiving treatment.

The relationship between compartment models and their stochastic counterparts: A comparative study with examples of the COVID-19 epidemic modeling.

Deterministic compartment models (CMs) and stochastic models, including stochastic CMs and agent-based models, are widely utilized in epidemic modeling. However, the relationship between CMs and their corresponding stochastic models is not well understood. The present study aimed to address this gap by conducting a comparative study using the susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered (SEIR) model and its extended CMs from the coronavirus disease 2019 modeling literature.

Modelling the preventive treatment under media impact on tuberculosis: A comparison in four regions of China.

Preventive treatment for people with latent Tuberculosis infection (LTBI) has aroused our great interest. In this paper, we propose and analyze a novel mathematical model of TB considering preventive treatment with media impact. The basic reproduction number is defined by the next generation matrix method.

Environmental Contamination of SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC by COVID-19 Patients Staying in the Hospital for More Than Two Weeks.

Background: Patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC have a longer course of disease. We detected the air, surfaces, and patient's personal items in the wards of the second hospital of Nanjing during the outbreak of the COVID-19 Delta Variant to identify the environmental contamination, which provides a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of COVID-19 variation beads in the future.

Methods: In the cross-sectional study, we collected and analyzed clinical features, demographic and epidemiological data, laboratory and swab test results, and surface and air samples of 144 COVID-19 cases.

COVID-19 transmission driven by age-group mathematical model in Shijiazhuang City of China.

Background: A COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas of Shijiazhuang City was attributed to the complex interactions among vaccination, host, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Herein, we investigated the epidemiological characteristics of all reported symptomatic cases by picking Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province in Northern China as research objective. In addition, we established a with age-group mathematical model to perform the optimal fitting and to investigate the dynamical profiles under three scenarios.

Annual incidence and fatality rates of notifiable infectious diseases in southeast China from 1950 to 2022 and relationship to socioeconomic development.

Background: Over the past 70 years, China has advanced significantly in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases while simultaneously undergoing a socioeconomic transformation, making it a useful source of data for analysing relationships between public health policy and the control of infectious diseases.

Methods: We collected data on the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases and associated fatalities in Jiangsu province in southeast China from the Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Provincial Institute of Parasitic Diseases, and the Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System. We compared data from different historical periods using descriptive statistical methods, joinpoint regression, and correlation analysis.

Dynamic modeling and data fitting of climatic and environmental factors and people's behavior factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Shanghai, China.

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) appear to be a multi-wave outbreak with unknown mechanisms. We investigate the effects of climatic and environmental factors and changes in people's behavior factors that may be caused by external factors: temperature, relative humidity, and school opening and closing.

Methods: Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and dynamic model are used to research multi-wave outbreaks of HFMD.

Effects and interaction of temperature and relative humidity on the trend of influenza prevalence: A multi-central study based on 30 provinces in mainland China from 2013 to 2018.

Background: Evidence is inefficient about how meteorological factors influence the trends of influenza transmission in different regions of China.

Methods: We estimated the time-varying reproduction number () of influenza and explored the impact of temperature and relative humidity on using generalized additive quasi-Poisson regression models combined with the distribution lag non-linear model (DLNM). The effect of temperature and humidity interaction on of influenza was explored.

Safety, immunogenicity and protection of heterologous boost with an aerosolised Ad5-nCoV after two-dose inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in adults: a multicentre, open-label phase 3 trial.

Background: Aerosolised Ad5-nCoV is one of the first licensed mucosal respiratory vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 in the world; however, the safety profile of this vaccine has not been reported in a large population yet.

Methods: This multicentre, open-label phase 3 trial, done in 15 centres in six provinces (Jiangsu, Hunan, Anhui, Chongqing, Yunnan, Shandong) in China, aimed to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of aerosolised Ad5-nCoV in healthy adults (members of the general population with no acute febrile disorders, infectious disease, serious cardiovascular diseases, serious chronic diseases or progressive diseases that cannot be controlled) at least 18 years old, who had received two doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccine as their primary regimen. This study contained a non-randomly assigned safety cohort and a centrally randomly assigned (1:1) immunogenicity subcohort.

Impact of antibody-level on viral shedding in B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant-infected patients analyzed using a joint model of longitudinal and time-to-event data.

Knowledge of viral shedding remains limited. Repeated measurement data have been rarely used to explore the influencing factors. In this study, a joint model was developed to explore and validate the factors influencing the duration of viral shedding based on longitudinal data and survival data.

Study on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China between November 2022 and January 2023, with prediction of its tendency.

The prediction system EpiSIX was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China between November 2022 and January 2023, based on reported data from December 9, 2022, to January 30, 2023, released by The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on February 1, 2023. Three kinds of reported data were used for model fitting: the daily numbers of positive nucleic acid tests and deaths, and the daily number of hospital beds taken by COVID-19 patients. It was estimated that the overall infection rate was 87.

Impact of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines on lung injury in B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant-infected patients.

Background: Chest computerized tomography (CT) scan is an important strategy that quantifies the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia. To what extent inactivated COVID-19 vaccines could impact the COVID-19 pneumonia on chest CT is not clear.

Methods: This study recruited 357 SARS-COV-2 B.

Association of Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals with All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in the U.S.: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Wide exposure to endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) poses a great risk on human health. However, few large-scale cohort studies have comprehensively estimated the association between EDCs exposure and mortality risk. This study aimed to investigate the association of urinary EDCs exposure with mortality risk and quantify attributable mortality and economic loss.

A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China.

Varicella (chickenpox) is highly contagious among children and frequently breaks out in schools. In this study, we developed a dynamic compartment model to explore the optimal schedule for varicella vaccination in Jiangsu Province, China. A susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model was proposed to simulate the transmission of varicella in different age groups.

Study and prediction of the 2022 global monkeypox epidemic.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared monkeypox as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on July 23, 2022, their highest level of alert. This raised concerns about the management of the global monkeypox outbreak, as well as the scientific analysis and accurate prediction of the future course of the epidemic. This study used EpiSIX (an analysis and prediction system for epidemics based on a general SEIR model) to analyze the monkeypox epidemic and to forecast the major tendencies based on data from the USA CDC (https://www.

Metagenomic next-generation sequencing for identification of central nervous system pathogens in HIV-infected patients.

Although considerable interest in metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) has been attracted in recent years, limited data are available regarding the performance of mNGS in HIV-associated central nervous system (CNS) infection. Here, we conducted a retrospectively analyzing of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) mNGS reports and other clinical data from 80 HIV-infected patients admitted to the Second Hospital of Nanjing, China from March, 2018 to March, 2022. In our study, CSF mNGS reported negative result, mono-infection, and mixed infection in 8.

High Cytomegalovirus Viral Load Is Associated With 182-Day All-Cause Mortality in Hospitalized People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

Background: Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is associated with increased mortality in persons with HIV (PWH). It is less clear whether CMV infection is still associated with mortality when routinely screened and adequately treated.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study recruited 1003 hospitalized adults with HIV with CD4 cell counts <200 cells/μL from May 2017 to June 2021.