Publications by authors named "Zhaorui Chang"

Article Synopsis
  • The study evaluates the effectiveness of enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) vaccines in reducing hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) cases among children under 5 in China, with analysis based on surveillance data and statistical models.
  • Findings show that between 2017 and 2018, vaccination led to a significant reduction in HFMD incidence, with a relative risk of 0.83, translating to about 298,000 fewer cases.
  • The effectiveness of the vaccine varied by region, was better in areas with higher vaccination coverage (above 20%), and decreased in more densely populated areas, highlighting the need for improved vaccination strategies.
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The Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) vaccine was introduced in China in December 2015 as a preventive measure against hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) caused by EV-A71. However, the effectiveness of the vaccine (VE) in real-world settings needs to be evaluated. We conducted a test-negative case-control study to assess the effectiveness of EV-A71 vaccines in preventing EV-A71-associated HFMD.

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RNA virus infection such as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection shows severe respiratory symptoms on human and could be an obvious individual characteristic for investigations in forensic science. As for biological samples suspected to contain RNA virus in forensic casework, it requires respective detection of viral RNA and human DNA: reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and DNA type (short tandem repeat [STR] analysis). Capillary electrophoresis (CE) has been shown to be a versatile technique and used for a variety of applications, so we preliminarily explored the co-detection of RNA virus and STR type on CE by developing a system of co-detecting SARS-CoV-2 and STR type under ensuring both the efficiency of forensic DNA analysis and safety of the laboratory.

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Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) remains an important public health problem in China. Understandings of age-specific transmission for different virus serotypes of the disease and assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) for HFMD are helpful for disease control, but they have been seldom considered. Here we further investigate transmission dynamics of HFMD and quantify the effects of NPIs and vaccination on the disease transmission.

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Background: The continuous mutation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has made the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic complicated to predict and posed a severe challenge to the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics and Winter Paralympics held in February and March 2022.

Methods: During the preparations for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, we established a dynamic model with pulse detection and isolation effect to evaluate the effect of epidemic prevention and control measures such as entry policies, contact reduction, nucleic acid testing, tracking, isolation, and health monitoring in a closed-loop management environment, by simulating the transmission dynamics in assumed scenarios. We also compared the importance of each parameter in the combination of intervention measures through sensitivity analysis.

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Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, considered as the worst global public health event in nearly a century, has severely affected more than 200 countries and regions around the world. To effectively prevent and control the epidemic, researchers have widely employed dynamic models to predict and simulate the epidemic's development, understand the spread rule, evaluate the effects of intervention measures, inform vaccination strategies, and assist in the formulation of prevention and control measures. In this review, we aimed to sort out the compartmental structures used in COVID-19 dynamic models and provide reference for the dynamic modeling for COVID-19 and other infectious diseases in the future.

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Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an important public health problem. A monovalent EV-A71 vaccine was launched in China in 2016. Previous studies showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines were highly efficient against HFMD associated with EV-A71 but not against HFMD with other etiologies, leading to a hypothesis that the introduction of EV-A71 vaccines might change the pathogen spectrum and epidemiological trend of HFMD.

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Background: In early 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented in China to reduce and contain the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. These NPIs might have also reduced the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD).

Methods: The weekly numbers of HFMD cases and meteorological factors in 31 provincial capital cities and municipalities in mainland China were obtained from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) and National Meteorological Information Center of China from 2016 to 2020.

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What Is Already Known On This Topic?: Human brucellosis, a neglected zoonotic disease, causes more than 500,000 new cases each year globally. The disease is of major public health concern in China, and northern provinces are traditionally endemic areas.

What Is Added By This Report?: This is the first published outbreak of occupational brucellosis involving multiple clusters in Hubei Province.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study analyzed the secondary attack rate (SAR) of COVID-19 among 2,382 close contacts of 476 symptomatic individuals in Yichang, China, from January 23 to February 25, 2020.
  • The overall SAR was 6.5%, with higher rates observed among those living with an infected person (10.8%) and spouses of infected individuals (15.9%).
  • Factors like being over 60 years old and living with the infected person significantly increased the SAR, indicating a high transmissibility of the virus.
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Background: COVID-19 has posed an enormous threat to public health around the world. Some severe and critical cases have bad prognoses and high case fatality rates, unraveling risk factors for severe COVID-19 are of significance for predicting and preventing illness progression, and reducing case fatality rates. Our study focused on analyzing characteristics of COVID-19 cases and exploring risk factors for developing severe COVID-19.

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Background: The relative contributions of asymptomatic, presymptomatic, and symptomatic transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 have not been clearly measured, although control measures may differ in response to the risk of spread posed by different types of cases.

Methods: We collected detailed information on transmission events and symptom status based on laboratory-confirmed patient data and contact tracing data from 4 provinces and 1 municipality in China. We estimated the variation in risk of transmission over time and the severity of secondary infections by symptomatic status of the infector.

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Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a significant public health issue, especially in developing countries. Many studies have reported the association between environmental temperature and HFMD. However, the results are highly heterogeneous in different regions.

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Article Synopsis
  • Severe hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) poses significant health risks to young children, with enterovirus A71 being a known major cause, but other regional risk factors remain underexplored.
  • The study utilized clinical data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention along with city-specific social, economic, and meteorological data to analyze the severity of HFMD across 143 Chinese cities from 2008 to 2014.
  • Results indicated a wide variation in HFMD severity rates, with higher rates in Central China, and identified that cities with better social and economic development and warm, humid climates tend to have lower severity rates of the disease.
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Background: Enterovirus 71 (EV-A71), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), and coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) are common serotypes causing hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). Analyses on the basic reproduction number (R0) of common pathogens causing HFMD are limited and there are no related studies using field data from outbreaks in mainland China.

Methods: We estimated the pathogen-specific basic reproduction number based on laboratory-confirmed HFMD outbreaks (clusters of ≥10 HFMD cases) reported to the national surveillance system between 2011 and 2018.

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Background: Numerous studies have demonstrated the potential association between rainfall and hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), but the results are inconsistent. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between rainfall and HFMD based on a multicity study and explore the potential sources of spatial heterogeneity.

Methods: We retrieved the daily counts of childhood HFMD and the meteorological variables of the 143 cities in mainland China between 2009 and 2014.

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Background: Comprehensive indices have been used to quantify the interactive effect of temperature and humidity on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). The majority of them reflect how weather feels to humans. In this study, we propose an alternative index aiming to reflect the impacts of weather on HFMD and compare its performance with that of previous indices.

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Background: Previous studies have thoroughly elucidated the exposure-response relationship between ambient temperature and hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), whereas very little concern has been to the lag-response relationship and related key time points.

Objectives: We aimed to clarify the temporal characteristics of the lag-response relationship between ambient temperature and HFMD and how they may vary spatially.

Methods: We retrieved the daily time series of meteorological variables and HFMD counts for 143 cities in mainland China between 2009 and 2014.

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Background: Between mid-January and early February, provinces of mainland China outside the epicentre in Hubei province were on high alert for importations and transmission of COVID-19. Many properties of COVID-19 infection and transmission were still not yet established.

Methods: We collated and analysed data on 449 of the earliest COVID-19 cases detected outside Hubei province to make inferences about transmission dynamics and severity of infection.

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Background: Growing evidence suggests that the diurnal temperature range (DTR) could modify the temperature-disease relationship for those environmentally-related infectious diseases. However, there is a lack of evidence on the hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). In this study, we thoroughly examined this hypothesis via a nationwide study.

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What Is Already Known About This Topic?: Enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) is the main causative pathogen for severe and fatal patients with Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in mainland China from 2008 to 2017. Non-EV-A71 and non-CV-A16 (other enterovirus) serotypes were the major causative-serotypes for mild HFMD in years of 2013, 2015, and 2017.

What Is Added By This Report?: In 2018, other enterovirus serotypes replaced EV-A71 for the first time as the major cause of severe HFMD with a proportion of 70.

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