How to Assess the Child Poverty and Distributional Impact of COVID-19 Using Household Budget Surveys: An Application Using Turkish Data.

This study presents a methodology to predict the child poverty impact of COVID-19 that can be readily applied in other country contexts where similar household data are available-and illustrates this case using data from Turkey. Using Household Budget Survey 2018, the microsimulation model estimates the impact of labour income loss on household expenditures, considering that some types of jobs/sectors may be more vulnerable than others to the COVID-19 shock. Labour income loss is estimated to lead to reductions in monthly household expenditure using an income elasticity model, and expenditure-based child poverty is found to increase in Turkey by 4.