Enhanced nitrous oxide emission factors due to climate change increase the mitigation challenge in the agricultural sector.

Effective nitrogen fertilizer management is crucial for reducing nitrous oxide (NO) emissions while ensuring food security within planetary boundaries. However, climate change might also interact with management practices to alter NO emission and emission factors (EFs), adding further uncertainties to estimating mitigation potentials. Here, we developed a new hybrid modeling framework that integrates a machine learning model with an ensemble of eight process-based models to project EFs under different climate and nitrogen policy scenarios.

Microbial competition for phosphorus limits the CO response of a mature forest.

The capacity for terrestrial ecosystems to sequester additional carbon (C) with rising CO concentrations depends on soil nutrient availability. Previous evidence suggested that mature forests growing on phosphorus (P)-deprived soils had limited capacity to sequester extra biomass under elevated CO (refs. ), but uncertainty about ecosystem P cycling and its CO response represents a crucial bottleneck for mechanistic prediction of the land C sink under climate change.

On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2.

The Global Stocktake (GST), implemented by the Paris Agreement, requires rapid developments in the capabilities to quantify annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals consistently from the global to the national scale and improvements to national GHG inventories. In particular, new capabilities are needed for accurate attribution of sources and sinks and their trends to natural and anthropogenic processes. On the one hand, this is still a major challenge as national GHG inventories follow globally harmonized methodologies based on the guidelines established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but these can be implemented differently for individual countries.

Convergence in phosphorus constraints to photosynthesis in forests around the world.

Tropical forests take up more carbon (C) from the atmosphere per annum by photosynthesis than any other type of vegetation. Phosphorus (P) limitations to C uptake are paramount for tropical and subtropical forests around the globe. Yet the generality of photosynthesis-P relationships underlying these limitations are in question, and hence are not represented well in terrestrial biosphere models.

Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink.

The observed global net land carbon sink is captured by current land models. All models agree that atmospheric CO and nitrogen deposition driven gains in carbon stocks are partially offset by climate and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) losses. However, there is a lack of consensus in the partitioning of the sink between vegetation and soil, where models do not even agree on the direction of change in carbon stocks over the past 60 years.

Mismatch of N release from the permafrost and vegetative uptake opens pathways of increasing nitrous oxide emissions in the high Arctic.

Biogeochemical cycling in permafrost-affected ecosystems remains associated with large uncertainties, which could impact the Earth's greenhouse gas budget and future climate policies. In particular, increased nutrient availability following permafrost thaw could perturb the greenhouse gas exchange in these systems, an effect largely unexplored until now. Here, we enhance the terrestrial ecosystem model QUINCY (QUantifying Interactions between terrestrial Nutrient CYcles and the climate system), which simulates fully coupled carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles in vegetation and soil, with processes relevant in high latitudes (e.

Contrasting anatomical and biochemical controls on mesophyll conductance across plant functional types.

Mesophyll conductance (g ) limits photosynthesis by restricting CO diffusion between the substomatal cavities and chloroplasts. Although it is known that g is determined by both leaf anatomical and biochemical traits, their relative contribution across plant functional types (PFTs) is still unclear. We compiled a dataset of g measurements and concomitant leaf traits in unstressed plants comprising 563 studies and 617 species from all major PFTs.

Predicting resilience through the lens of competing adjustments to vegetation function.

There is a pressing need to better understand ecosystem resilience to droughts and heatwaves. Eco-evolutionary optimization approaches have been proposed as means to build this understanding in land surface models and improve their predictive capability, but competing approaches are yet to be tested together. Here, we coupled approaches that optimize canopy gas exchange and leaf nitrogen investment, respectively, extending both approaches to account for hydraulic impairment.

Long-term ecosystem nitrogen limitation from foliar δ N data and a land surface model.

The effect of nutrient availability on plant growth and the terrestrial carbon sink under climate change and elevated CO remains one of the main uncertainties of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This is partially due to the difficulty of assessing nutrient limitation at large scales over long periods of time. Consistent declines in leaf nitrogen (N) content and leaf δ N have been used to suggest that nitrogen limitation has increased in recent decades, most likely due to the concurrent increase in atmospheric CO .

The three major axes of terrestrial ecosystem function.

The leaf economics spectrum and the global spectrum of plant forms and functions revealed fundamental axes of variation in plant traits, which represent different ecological strategies that are shaped by the evolutionary development of plant species. Ecosystem functions depend on environmental conditions and the traits of species that comprise the ecological communities. However, the axes of variation of ecosystem functions are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond as a whole to anthropogenic drivers, climate and environmental variability.

A comprehensive quantification of global nitrous oxide sources and sinks.

Nitrous oxide (NO), like carbon dioxide, is a long-lived greenhouse gas that accumulates in the atmosphere. Over the past 150 years, increasing atmospheric NO concentrations have contributed to stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, with the current rate of increase estimated at 2 per cent per decade. Existing national inventories do not provide a full picture of NO emissions, owing to their omission of natural sources and limitations in methodology for attributing anthropogenic sources.

The European carbon cycle response to heat and drought as seen from atmospheric CO data for 1999-2018.

In 2018, central and northern parts of Europe experienced heat and drought conditions over many months from spring to autumn, strongly affecting both natural ecosystems and crops. Besides their impact on nature and society, events like this can be used to study the impact of climate variations on the terrestrial carbon cycle, which is an important determinant of the future climate trajectory. Here, variations in the regional net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere were quantified from measurements of atmospheric CO mole fractions.

Impacts of extreme summers on European ecosystems: a comparative analysis of 2003, 2010 and 2018.

In Europe, three widespread extreme summer drought and heat (DH) events have occurred in 2003, 2010 and 2018. These events were comparable in magnitude but varied in their geographical distribution and biomes affected. In this study, we perform a comparative analysis of the impact of the DH events on ecosystem CO fluxes over Europe based on an ensemble of 11 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), and the observation-based FLUXCOM product.

Low phosphorus supply constrains plant responses to elevated CO : A meta-analysis.

Phosphorus (P) is an essential macro-nutrient required for plant metabolism and growth. Low P availability could potentially limit plant responses to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO ), but consensus has yet to be reached on the extent of this limitation. Here, based on data from experiments that manipulated both CO and P for young individuals of woody and non-woody species, we present a meta-analysis of P limitation impacts on plant growth, physiological, and morphological response to eCO .

Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity.

In summer 2018, central and northern Europe were stricken by extreme drought and heat (DH2018). The DH2018 differed from previous events in being preceded by extreme spring warming and brightening, but moderate rainfall deficits, yet registering the fastest transition between wet winter conditions and extreme summer drought. Using 11 vegetation models, we show that spring conditions promoted increased vegetation growth, which, in turn, contributed to fast soil moisture depletion, amplifying the summer drought.

Organizing principles for vegetation dynamics.

Plants and vegetation play a critical-but largely unpredictable-role in global environmental changes due to the multitude of contributing processes at widely different spatial and temporal scales. In this Perspective, we explore approaches to master this complexity and improve our ability to predict vegetation dynamics by explicitly taking account of principles that constrain plant and ecosystem behaviour: natural selection, self-organization and entropy maximization. These ideas are increasingly being used in vegetation models, but we argue that their full potential has yet to be realized.

Ensemble projections elucidate effects of uncertainty in terrestrial nitrogen limitation on future carbon uptake.

The magnitude of the nitrogen (N) limitation of terrestrial carbon (C) storage over the 21st century is highly uncertain because of the complex interactions between the terrestrial C and N cycles. We use an ensemble approach to quantify and attribute process-level uncertainty in C-cycle projections by analysing a 30-member ensemble representing published alternative representations of key N cycle processes (stoichiometry, biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) and ecosystem N losses) within the framework of one terrestrial biosphere model. Despite large differences in the simulated present-day N cycle, primarily affecting simulated productivity north of 40°N, ensemble members generally conform with global C-cycle benchmarks for present-day conditions.

The fate of carbon in a mature forest under carbon dioxide enrichment.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment (eCO) can enhance plant carbon uptake and growth, thereby providing an important negative feedback to climate change by slowing the rate of increase of the atmospheric CO concentration. Although evidence gathered from young aggrading forests has generally indicated a strong CO fertilization effect on biomass growth, it is unclear whether mature forests respond to eCO in a similar way. In mature trees and forest stands, photosynthetic uptake has been found to increase under eCO without any apparent accompanying growth response, leaving the fate of additional carbon fixed under eCO unclear.

Enhanced regional terrestrial carbon uptake over Korea revealed by atmospheric CO measurements from 1999 to 2017.

Understanding changes in terrestrial carbon balance is important to improve our knowledge of the regional carbon cycle and climate change. However, evaluating regional changes in the terrestrial carbon balance is challenging due to the lack of surface flux measurements. This study reveals that the terrestrial carbon uptake over the Republic of Korea has been enhanced from 1999 to 2017 by analyzing long-term atmospheric CO concentration measurements at the Anmyeondo Station (36.

Whole-plant optimality predicts changes in leaf nitrogen under variable CO and nutrient availability.

Vegetation nutrient limitation is essential for understanding ecosystem responses to global change. In particular, leaf nitrogen (N) is known to be plastic under changed nutrient limitation. However, models can often not capture these observed changes, leading to erroneous predictions of whole-ecosystem stocks and fluxes.