Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts.

This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance-specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle-related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category.