Publications by authors named "Yura K Ko"

Objectives: There is an urgent need to maximise the effectiveness of existing malaria interventions and optimise the deployment of novel countermeasures. When assessing the effects of interventions against malaria, it is imperative to consider the interdependence of people and the resulting indirect effects. Without proper consideration of the effects, the interventions' impact on health outcomes and their cost-effectiveness may be miscalculated.

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Background: Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) and vaccines are effective malaria control tools. However, inadequate uptake has been reported in countries where both interventions are available. To maximize the impact these tools provide, it is crucial to identify populations that are not being reached and the barriers to uptake.

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Introduction: Malaria is still a major health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, where 98% of global malaria mortality occurs. In addition, the spread of with partial artemisinin resistance in East Africa and beyond is a great concern. The establishment of more effective vector control, in addition to the current long-lasting insecticide-treated net distribution programme, is an urgent task in these areas.

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Article Synopsis
  • - Japan's approach to COVID-19 has focused on a cluster-based strategy, considering the varying levels of virus transmission (overdispersion) throughout the pandemic.
  • - Research aimed to investigate how transmission heterogeneity shifted with new variants like Alpha, Delta, and Omicron in Yamagata Prefecture, using detailed contact tracing data.
  • - Findings indicated that even with the emergence of new variants, transmission variability persisted, emphasizing the need for ongoing monitoring and a sustainable system for analyzing epidemic data.
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To determine the effects of age and variants of concern on transmission of SARS-CoV-2, we analyzed infection rates among close contacts over 4 periods in Toyama Prefecture, Japan. Among household contacts, odds of infection were 6.2 times higher during the period of the Omicron variant than during previous periods, particularly among children and adolescents.

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Article Synopsis
  • Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 variants like Alpha and Delta is crucial due to their impact on infectivity and immune evasion, leading to a study on their regional and temporal replacement of previous strains.
  • Researchers analyzed PCR test results from various labs and used a logistic growth model to estimate how quickly new variants took over existing strains.
  • The study found that Alpha replaced over 90% of earlier strains by May 2021, while Delta did so by August 2021, with significant transmission advantages of up to 71.9% in different regions of Japan.
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Background: In Japan, vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was initiated on 17 February 2021, mainly using messenger RNA vaccines and prioritizing health care professionals. Whereas nationwide vaccination alleviated the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related burden, the population impact has yet to be quantified in Japan. We aimed to estimate the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented that were attributable to the reduced risk among vaccinated individuals via a statistical modeling framework.

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Background: Quantifying the impact on COVID-19 transmission from a single event has been difficult due to the virus transmission dynamics, such as lag from exposure to reported infection, non-linearity arising from the person-to-person transmission, and the modifying effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions over time. To address these issues, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 transmission risk of social events focusing on the Japanese Coming-of-Age Day and Coming-of-Age ceremony in which "new adults" practice risky behavior on that particular day.

Methods: Using national surveillance data in Japan in 2021 and 2022, we conducted difference-in-differences regression against COVID-19 incidences by setting "new adults" cases as the treatment group and the cases 1 year younger or older than these "new adults" as the control group.

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COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against death in Japan remains unknown. Furthermore, although evidence indicates that healthcare capacity influences case-fatality risk (CFR), it remains unknown whether this relationship is mediated by age. With a modeling study, we analyzed daily COVID-19 cases and deaths during January-August 2021 by using Tokyo surveillance data to jointly estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against death and age-specific CFR.

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Article Synopsis
  • A national COVID-19 cluster taskforce was created in Japan to assist the Ministry of Health in daily risk assessments amid the pandemic.
  • Initial infectious disease surveillance systems were inadequate for real-time assessments, leading to the need for improved data management.
  • A new database was developed to compile and standardize case data from local governments, enabling effective real-time risk analysis and informing public health responses from January 2020 to June 2021.
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Objectives: Super-spreading events caused by overdispersed secondary transmission are crucial in the transmission of COVID-19. However, the exact level of overdispersion, demographics, and other factors associated with secondary transmission remain elusive. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the frequency and patterns of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan.

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Article Synopsis
  • * It found that cases in these facilities peaked after the general population peak and that the duration of new cases was positively linked to the number of infected individuals in both types of facilities.
  • * Additionally, the timing of the first case in a region showed a negative correlation with the number of cases in social welfare facilities, suggesting different trends in disease spread between medical and social welfare settings.
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Roles of children and adolescents in spreading coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the community is not fully understood. We analyzed the data of 7,758 children and adolescents with COVID-19 and characteristics of secondary transmission generated by these cases using case information published by local governments. Ratio of pediatric and adolescent cases generating secondary transmission was calculated for various social settings.

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Introduction: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused unprecedented global morbidity and mortality. Japan has faced three epidemic "waves" of COVID-19 from early 2020 through early 2021. Here we narratively review the three waves in Japan, describe the key epidemiologic features of COVID-19, and discuss lessons learned.

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Detection and isolation of infected people are believed to play an important role in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some countries conduct large-scale screenings for testing, whereas others test mainly people with high prior probability of infection such as showing severe symptoms and/or having an epidemiological link with a known or suspected case or cluster of cases. However, what a good testing strategy is and whether the difference in testing strategy shows a meaningful, measurable impact on the COVID-19 epidemic remain unknown.

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The overall coronavirus disease secondary attack rate (SAR) in family members was 19.0% in 10 prefectures of Japan during February 22-May 31, 2020. The SAR was lower for primary cases diagnosed early, within 2 days after symptom onset.

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We analyzed 3,184 cases of coronavirus disease in Japan and identified 61 case-clusters in healthcare and other care facilities, restaurants and bars, workplaces, and music events. We also identified 22 probable primary case-patients for the clusters; most were 20-39 years of age and presymptomatic or asymptomatic at virus transmission.

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