Publications by authors named "Yuliya N Kyrychko"

COVID-19 disease caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has already brought unprecedented challenges for public health and resulted in huge numbers of cases and deaths worldwide. In the absence of effective vaccine, different countries have employed various other types of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain the spread of this disease, including quarantines and lockdowns, tracking, tracing and isolation of infected individuals, and social distancing measures. Effectiveness of these and other measures of disease containment and prevention to a large degree depends on good understanding of disease dynamics, and robust mathematical models play an important role in forecasting its future dynamics.

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In this paper we present a new method for deriving Itô stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) from delayed chemical master equations (DCMEs). Considering alternative formulations of SDDEs that can be derived from the same DCME, we prove that they are equivalent both in distribution, and in sample paths they produce. This allows us to formulate an algorithmic approach to deriving equivalent Itô SDDEs with a smaller number of noise variables, which increases the computational speed of simulating stochastic delayed systems.

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In this paper we study interactions between stochasticity and time delays in the dynamics of immune response to viral infections, with particular interest in the onset and development of autoimmune response. Starting with a deterministic time-delayed model of immune response to infection, which includes cytokines and T cells with different activation thresholds, we derive an exact delayed chemical master equation for the probability density. We use system size expansion and linear noise approximation to explore how variance and coherence of stochastic oscillations depend on parameters, and to show that stochastic oscillations become more regular when regulatory T cells become more effective at clearing autoreactive T cells.

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In this paper, we consider a ring neural network with one-way distributed-delay coupling between the neurons and a discrete delayed self-feedback. In the general case of the distribution kernels, we are able to find a subset of the amplitude death regions depending on even (odd) number of neurons in the network. Furthermore, in order to show the full region of the amplitude death, we use particular delay distributions, including Dirac delta function and gamma distribution.

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Among various environmental factors associated with triggering or exacerbating autoimmune response, an important role is played by infections. A breakdown of immune tolerance as a byproduct of immune response against these infections is one of the major causes of autoimmune disease. In this paper we analyse the dynamics of immune response with particular emphasis on the role of time delays characterising the infection and the immune response, as well as on interactions between different types of T cells and cytokines that mediate their behaviour.

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Among various possible causes of autoimmune disease, an important role is played by infections that can result in a breakdown of immune tolerance, primarily through the mechanism of "molecular mimicry". In this paper we propose and analyse a stochastic model of immune response to a viral infection and subsequent autoimmunity, with account for the populations of T cells with different activation thresholds, regulatory T cells, and cytokines. We show analytically and numerically how stochasticity can result in sustained oscillations around deterministically stable steady states, and we also investigate stochastic dynamics in the regime of bi-stability.

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We investigate a time-delayed epidemic model for multi-strain diseases with temporary immunity. In the absence of cross-immunity between strains, dynamics of each individual strain exhibit emergence and annihilation of limit cycles due to a Hopf bifurcation of the endemic equilibrium, and a saddle-node bifurcation of limit cycles depending on the time delay associated with duration of temporary immunity. Effects of all-to-all and non-local coupling topologies are systematically investigated by means of numerical simulations, and they suggest that cross-immunity is able to induce a diverse range of complex dynamical behaviors and synchronization patterns, including discrete traveling waves, solitary states, and amplitude chimeras.

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A recent paper Ncube (2013) [11] considered the disease-free equilibrium in a mathematical model for intra-host dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum malaria with discrete immune time delay. The author showed that depending on system parameters, the disease-free steady state can be absolutely stable (i.e.

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Effects of immune delay on symmetric dynamics are investigated within a model of antigenic variation in malaria. Using isotypic decomposition of the phase space, stability problem is reduced to the analysis of a cubic transcendental equation for the eigenvalues. This allows one to identify periodic solutions with different symmetries arising at a Hopf bifurcation.

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An epidemic model with distributed time delay is derived to describe the dynamics of infectious diseases with varying immunity. It is shown that solutions are always positive, and the model has at most two steady states: disease-free and endemic. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable.

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