Drawing on the Development Experiences of Infectious Disease Surveillance Systems Around the World.

High-quality infectious disease surveillance systems are foundational to infectious disease prevention and control. Current major infectious disease surveillance systems globally can be categorized as either indicator-based, which are more specific, or event-based, which are more timely. Modern surveillance systems commonly utilize multi-source data, strengthened information sharing, advanced technology, and improved early warning accuracy and sensitivity.

Trends, Age-Period-Cohort Effects, and Projections in the Incidence and Mortality of HIV/AIDS among the Elderly in China.

Background: HIV/AIDS among the elderly presents a new public health challenge in China. We aimed to explore historical trends (2004-2018) and project the future (2019-2030) burden of HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality among the elderly in China.

Methods: We utilized data from the Data Center of China Public Health Science database on HIV/AIDS incidence and mortality, employing the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to reveal the age-period-cohort effect in the HIV/AIDS burden, and projecting the incidence and mortality rates up to 2030.

Evolution of COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong Province, China: an endemic-epidemic modeling study.

Background: From January 2020 to June 2022, strict interventions against COVID-19 were implemented in Guangdong Province, China. However, the evolution of COVID-19 dynamics remained unclear in this period.

Objectives: This study aims to investigate the evolution of within- and between-city COVID-19 dynamics in Guangdong, specifically during the implementation of rigorous prevention and control measures.

Projection for dementia burden in China to 2050: a macro-simulation study by scenarios of dementia incidence trends.

Background: It is unclear how temporal trends in dementia incidence, alongside fast-changing demography, will influence China's future dementia burden. We developed a Markov model that combines population trends in dementia, mortality, and dementia-related comorbidities, to forecast and decompose the burden of dementia in China to 2050.

Methods: Population-based Chinese ageing cohorts provided input data for a 10-health-state Markov macrosimulation model, IMPACT-China Ageing Model (CAM), to predict sex- and age-specific dementia prevalence among people aged 50+ by year to 2050.

Evolving molecular HIV clusters revealed genotype-specific dynamics in Guangzhou, China (2008-2020).

Objectives: This study investigated the genotype-specific dynamics of molecular HIV clusters (MHCs) in Guangzhou, China, aiming to enhance HIV control.

Methods: HIV pol sequences from people with HIV (PWH) in Guangzhou (2008-2020) were obtained for genotyping and molecular network creation. MHCs were identified and categorized into three types: emerging, growing, or stable.

Urban residential greenness and cancer mortality: Evaluating the causal mediation role of air pollution in a large cohort.

Evidence linking greenness to all-site and site-specific cancers remains limited, and the complex role of air pollution in this pathway is unclear. We aimed to fill these gaps by using a large cohort in southern China. A total of 654,115 individuals were recruited from 2009 to 2015 and followed-up until December 2020.

The joint impact of PM constituents on the risk of cerebrovascular diseases hospitalization: A large community-based cohort study.

Air pollution poses significant health risks to urban areas, with limited focus on the chronic association of PM and its constituents on cerebrovascular diseases (CERs), especially regarding the joint associations. This study explores the individual and joint associations between PM constituents and CER hospitalization risks through a cohort analysis of 36,271 adults in the Pearl River Delta, South China, from 2015 to 2020. Cox proportional hazards regression and quantile-based g-computation models were used to quantify the individual and joint associations of annual mean concentrations of PM constituents with hospitalization for CERs.

The effect of residential greenness on cardiovascular mortality from a large cohort in South China: An in-depth analysis of effect modification by multiple demographic and lifestyle characteristics.

Background: The potential for residential greenness to improve cardiovascular health through both physical and psychological mechanisms is well recognized. However, evidence from rapidly urbanizing developing countries and cohort-based causal inference approaches, remains limited. We aim to examine the effect of residential greenness and time to cardiovascular mortality in South China.

The development of a performance evaluation index system for Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: a Delphi consensus study.

Background: The performance evaluation of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is crucial for enhancing the quality of public health services. With the ongoing reform of the CDC system in China, the existing performance evaluation system faces challenges. This study used the Delphi method to develop a new performance evaluation system for China's provincial, city, and county-level CDC.

Association of long-term exposure to PM and its chemical components with the reduced quality of sleep.

Poor sleep quality is a widespread concern. While the influence of particle exposure on sleep disturbances has received considerable attention, research exploring other dimensions of sleep quality and the chemical components of the particles remains limited. We employed a marginal structural model to explore the association of long-term exposure to PM and its chemical components with poor sleep quality.

The origin and spread of HIV-1 CRF59_01B epidemic in China: A molecular network and phylogeographic analysis.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 CRF59_01B, identified in China in 2013, has been detected nationwide, exhibiting notably high prevalence in Guangzhou and its vicinity. This study aimed to unravel its origin and migration. A data set was established, incorporating all available CRF59_01B pol gene sequences and their metadata from Guangzhou and the public database.

Protective effectiveness of previous infection against subsequent SARS-Cov-2 infection: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The protective effectiveness provided by naturally acquired immunity against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection remain controversial.

Objective: To systematically evaluate the protective effect of natural immunity against subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection with different variants.

Methods: We searched for related studies published in seven databases before March 5, 2023.

Assessing the modification impact of vaccination on the relationship of the Discomfort Index with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guizhou: A multicounty study.

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a major public health issue in China while temperature and humidity are well-documented predictors. However, evidence on the combined effect of temperature and humidity is still limited. It also remains unclear whether such an effect could be modified by the enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccination.

How long-term PM exposure may affect all-site cancer mortality: Evidence from a large cohort in southern China.

Background: Evidence of a potential causal link between long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and all-site cancer mortality from large population cohorts remained limited and suffered from residual confounding issues with traditional statistical methods.

Aims: We aimed to examine the potential causal relationship between long-term PM exposure and all-site cancer mortality in South China using causal inference methods.

Methods: We used a cohort in southern China that recruited 580,757 participants from 2009 through 2015 and tracked until 2020.

Residential greenness and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a large cohort in southern China: Potential causal links, risk trajectories, and mediation pathways.

Introduction: Residential greenness may influence COPD mortality, but the causal links, risk trajectories, and mediation pathways between them remain poorly understood.

Objectives: We aim to comprehensively identify the potential causal links, characterize the dynamic progression of hospitalization or posthospital risk, and quantify mediation effects between greenness and COPD.

Methods: This study was conducted using a community-based cohort enrolling individuals aged ≥ 18 years in southern China from January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2015.

Global Burden and Trends of Primary Liver Cancer Attributable to Comorbid Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Among People Living with Hepatitis B: An Observational Trend Study from 1990 to 2019.

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increases the risk of liver cancer among people living with hepatitis B virus (HBV). Our study aimed to estimate the global burden and trends of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among people living with HBV from 1990 to 2019.

Methods: We calculated the population attributable fractions (PAFs) of liver cancer attributable to comorbid T2DM among the burden of HBV-related liver cancer.

Long-term PM exposure and hypertension hospitalization: A causal inference study on a large community-based cohort in South China.

Limited evidence exists on the effect of submicronic particulate matter (PM) on hypertension hospitalization. Evidence based on causal inference and large cohorts is even more scarce. In 2015, 36,271 participants were enrolled in South China and followed up through 2020.

Relationships between long-term exposure to major PM constituents and outpatient visits and hospitalizations in Guangdong, China.

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM) has attracted considerable attention due to its crucial role in the rising global disease burden. Evidence of health risks associated with exposure to PM and its major constituents is important for advancing hazard assessments and air pollution emission policies. We investigated the relationship between exposure to major constituents of PM and outpatient visits as well as hospitalizations in Guangdong Province, China, where 127 million residents live in a severe PM pollution environment.

Unveiling causal connections: Long-term particulate matter exposure and type 2 diabetes mellitus mortality in Southern China.

Evidence of the potential causal links between long-term exposure to particulate matters (PM, i.e., PM, PM, and PM) and T2DM mortality based on large cohorts is limited.

Revisiting the complex time-varying effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in the United States.

Introduction: Although the global COVID-19 emergency ended, the real-world effects of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the relative contribution of individual NPIs over time were poorly understood, limiting the mitigation of future potential epidemics.

Methods: Based on four large-scale datasets including epidemic parameters, virus variants, vaccines, and meteorological factors across 51 states in the United States from August 2020 to July 2022, we established a Bayesian hierarchical model with a spike-and-slab prior to assessing the time-varying effect of NPIs and vaccination on mitigating COVID-19 transmission and identifying important NPIs in the context of different variants pandemic.

Results: We found that (i) the empirical reduction in reproduction number attributable to integrated NPIs was 52.

Analysis of health service utilization and influencing factors due to COVID-19 in Beijing: a large cross-sectional survey.

Background: In the wake of China's relaxed zero-COVID policy, there was a surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections. This study aimed to examine the infection status and health service utilization among Beijing residents during a widespread outbreak, and to explore the factors that affected utilization of health services due to COVID-19.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted among Beijing residents from 13 January to 13 February 2023, collecting information on socio-demographic characteristics, health behaviours, COVID-19 infection status, utilization of health services and depressive symptoms.

Predicting the incidence of infectious diarrhea with symptom surveillance data using a stacking-based ensembled model.

Background: Infectious diarrhea remains a major public health problem worldwide. This study used stacking ensemble to developed a predictive model for the incidence of infectious diarrhea, aiming to achieve better prediction performance.

Methods: Based on the surveillance data of infectious diarrhea cases, relevant symptoms and meteorological factors of Guangzhou from 2016 to 2021, we developed four base prediction models using artificial neural networks (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTM), support vector regression (SVR) and extreme gradient boosting regression trees (XGBoost), which were then ensembled using stacking to obtain the final prediction model.