Mathematical and statistical approaches in epidemiological investigation of hospital infection: A case study of the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in Korea.

Mathematical and statistical methods are invaluable in epidemiological investigations, enhancing our understanding of disease transmission dynamics and informing effective control measures. In this study, we presented a method to estimate transmissibility using patient-level data, with application to the 2015 MERS outbreak at Pyeongtaek St. Mary's Hospital, the Republic of Korea.

A comprehensive analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on Ebolavirus disease outbreak: Stochastic modeling approach.

Ebolavirus disease (EVD) outbreaks have intermittently occurred since the first documented case in the 1970s. Due to its transmission characteristics, large outbreaks have not been observed outside Africa. However, within the continent, significant outbreaks have been attributed to factors such as endemic diseases with similar symptoms and inadequate medical infrastructure, which complicate timely diagnosis.

Effective vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 in Korea: a modeling study.

Objectives: In Korea, as immunity levels of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the population acquired through previous infections and vaccinations have decreased, booster vaccinations have emerged as a necessary measure to control new outbreaks. The objective of this study was to identify the most suitable vaccination strategy for controlling the surge in COVID-19 cases.

Methods: A mathematical model was developed to concurrently evaluate the immunity levels induced by vaccines and infections.

Estimation of monkeypox spread in a nonendemic country considering contact tracing and self-reporting: A stochastic modeling study.

In May 2022, monkeypox started to spread in nonendemic countries. To investigate contact tracing and self-reporting of the primary case in the local community, a stochastic model is developed. An algorithm based on Gillespie's stochastic chemical kinetics is used to quantify the number of infections, contacts, and duration from the arrival of the primary case to the detection of the index case (or until there are no more local infections).

Multi-Faceted Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic in Korea Considering Omicron Variant: Mathematical Modeling-Based Study.

Background: The most recent variant of concern, omicron (B.1.1.

Risk of COVID-19 transmission in heterogeneous age groups and effective vaccination strategy in Korea: a mathematical modeling study.

Objectives: This study aims to analyze the possibility and conditions of maintaining an effective reproductive number below 1 using a mathematical model.

Methods: The total population was divided into five age groups (0-17, 18-29, 30-59, 60-74, and ≥75 years). Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was used to estimate the transmission rate of each age group.

COVID-19 Vaccine Priority Strategy Using a Heterogenous Transmission Model Based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Republic of Korea.

(1) Background: The vaccine supply is likely to be limited in 2021 due to constraints in manufacturing. To maximize the benefit from the rollout phase, an optimal strategy of vaccine allocation is necessary based on each country's epidemic status. (2) Methods: We first developed a heterogeneous population model considering the transmission matrix using maximum likelihood estimation based on the epidemiological records of individual COVID-19 cases in the Republic of Korea.

Keeping Low Reproductive Number Despite the Rebound Population Mobility in Korea, a Country Never under Lockdown during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Nonpharmaceutical intervention has been one of the most important strategies to prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 in the communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. Korea has a unique experience that we had the first large outbreak during the early pandemic and could flatten the epidemic curve without lockdown. In this study, the effective reproductive numbers were calculated for the entire nation and Seoul (the capital city) Metropolitan Area from February 16-15 July, where 60% of the population reside.

The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea.

Background: In the Republic of Korea (ROK), social distancing and public behavior changes mitigated COVID-19 spread. However, a second wave of the epidemic is expected in the fall if neither vaccine nor antiviral drugs become available. This study investigated the impact of non-pharmaceutical measures on short- and long-term outbreak dynamics.

Risk estimation of the SARS-CoV-2 acute respiratory disease outbreak outside China.

Background: On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was alerted to the occurrence of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, that were caused by an unknown virus, which was later identified as a coronavirus and named the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We aimed to estimate the reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2 in the Hubei Province and evaluate the risk of an acute respiratory coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak outside China by using a mathematical model and stochastic simulations.

Results: We constructed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, estimated the rate of transmission, and calculated the reproductive number in Hubei Province by using case-report data from January 11 to February 6, 2020.

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Korea: use of a mathematical model and stochastic simulation to estimate risk.

Objectives: According to the World Health Organization, there have been frequent reports of Ebola virus disease (EVD) since the 2014 EVD pandemic in West Africa. We aim to estimate the outbreak scale when an EVD infected person arrives in Korea.

Methods: Western Africa EVD epidemic mathematical model SEIJR or SEIJQR was modified to create a Korean EVD outbreak model.

Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the 2016-2017 avian influenza epidemic in the Republic of Korea.

During the winter of 2016-2017, an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) led to high mortality in poultry and put a serious burden on the poultry industry of the Republic of Korea. Effective control measures considering spatial heterogeneity to mitigate the HPAI epidemic is still a challenging issue. Here we develop a spatial-temporal compartmental model that incorporates the culling rate as a function of the reported farms and farm density in each town.