Change trend and attribution analysis of leaf area index in the East African Plateau from 1982 to 2020.

The ecosystems on the East African Plateau are crucial for maintaining the biodiversity, water resource balance, and ecological equilibrium of the African continent. However, the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation and the driving factors remain unclear. We analyzed leaf area index (LAI) change trends in the East African Plateau based on the GIMMS LAI4g dataset and further conducted attribution analysis combining temperature and precipitation data, as well as 10 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) in TRNEDY v9.

CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia.

The Dryland East Asia (DEA) is one of the largest inland arid regions, and vegetation is very sensitive to climate change. The complex environment in DEA with defects of modeling construction make it difficult to simulate and predict changes in vegetation structure and productivity. Here, we use the emergent constraint (EC) method to constrain the future interannual leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) trends in DEA, under four scenarios of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model ensemble.