Atmospheric health burden across the century and the accelerating impact of temperature compared to pollution.

Anthropogenic emissions alter atmospheric composition and therefore the climate, with implications for air pollution- and climate-related human health. Mortality attributable to air pollution and non-optimal temperature is a major concern, expected to shift under future climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. In this work, results from numerical simulations are used to assess future changes in mortality attributable to long-term exposure to both non-optimal temperature and air pollution simultaneously.

Entomological surveillance and spatiotemporal risk assessment of sand fly-borne diseases in Cyprus.

Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniases are important public health concerns in Cyprus. Although the diseases, historically prevalent on the island, were nearly eradicated by 1996, an increase in frequency and geographical spread has recently been recorded. Upward trends in leishmaniasis prevalence have largely been attributed to environmental changes that amplify the abundance and activity of its vector, the phlebotomine sand flies.

Machine Learning Modeling of Habitat Suitability in the 21st Century.

The Asian tiger mosquito, , is an important vector of arboviruses that cause diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and zika. The vector is highly invasive and adapted to survive in temperate northern territories outside its native tropical and sub-tropical range. Climate and socio-economic change are expected to facilitate its range expansion and exacerbate the global vector-borne disease burden.

Current and future trends in heat-related mortality in the MENA region: a health impact assessment with bias-adjusted statistically downscaled CMIP6 (SSP-based) data and Bayesian inference.

Background: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is one of the regions that is most vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change, yet the potential public health impacts have been underexplored compared to other regions. We aimed to examine one aspect of these impacts, heat-related mortality, by quantifying the current and future burden in the MENA region and identifying the most vulnerable countries.

Methods: We did a health impact assessment using an ensemble of bias-adjusted statistically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data based on four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2·6 [consistent with a 2°C global warming scenario], SSP2-4·5 [medium pathway scenario], SSP3-7·0 [pessimistic scenario], and SSP5-8·5 [high emissions scenario]) and Bayesian inference methods.

A climate-driven and field data-assimilated population dynamics model of sand flies.

Sand flies are responsible for the transmission of leishmaniasis, a neglected tropical disease claiming more than 50,000 lives annually. Leishmaniasis is an emerging health risk in tropical and Mediterranean countries as well as temperate regions in North America and Europe. There is an increasing demand for predicting population dynamics and spreading of sand flies to support management and control, yet phenotypic diversity and complex environmental dependence hamper model development.

Evaluation of EU air quality standards through modeling and the FAIRMODE benchmarking methodology.

We evaluate air quality modeling over the East Mediterranean using the benchmarking methodology developed in the framework of the Forum for Air Quality Modelling in Europe (FAIRMODE). FAIRMODE aims to provide a harmonized approach of model evaluation for regulatory purposes. We test the methodology by assessing the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) against ground-based air quality observations over Cyprus, a member state of the European Union.

A large-scale stochastic spatiotemporal model for Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya epidemiology.

Chikungunya is a viral disease transmitted to humans primarily via the bites of infected Aedes mosquitoes. The virus caused a major epidemic in the Indian Ocean in 2004, affecting millions of inhabitants, while cases have also been observed in Europe since 2007. We developed a stochastic spatiotemporal model of Aedes albopictus-borne chikungunya transmission based on our recently developed environmentally-driven vector population dynamics model.

Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse).

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America.

The role of environmental variables on Aedes albopictus biology and chikungunya epidemiology.

Aedes albopictus is a vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses in the field, along with around 24 additional arboviruses under laboratory conditions. As an invasive mosquito species, Ae. albopictus has been expanding in geographical range over the past 20 years, although the poleward extent of mosquito populations is limited by winter temperatures.