Model-based risk assessment of dengue fever transmission in Xiamen City, China.

Background: Quantitative assessment of the risk of local transmission from imported dengue cases makes a great challenge to the development of public health in China. The purpose of this study is to observe the risk of mosquito-borne transmission in Xiamen City through ecological and insecticide resistance monitoring. Quantitative evaluation of mosquito insecticide resistance, community population and the number of imported cases affecting the transmission of dengue fever (DF) in Xiamen was carried out based on transmission dynamics model, so as to reveal the correlation between key risk factors and DF transmission.

Application of logistic differential equation models for early warning of infectious diseases in Jilin Province.

Background: There is still a relatively serious disease burden of infectious diseases and the warning time for different infectious diseases before implementation of interventions is important. The logistic differential equation models can be used for predicting early warning of infectious diseases. The aim of this study is to compare the disease fitting effects of the logistic differential equation (LDE) model and the generalized logistic differential equation (GLDE) model for the first time using data on multiple infectious diseases in Jilin Province and to calculate the early warning signals for different types of infectious diseases using these two models in Jilin Province to solve the disease early warning schedule for Jilin Province throughout the year.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of microbial community composition and factors influencing the surface water and sediments of urban rivers.

The temporal and spatial characteristics of urban river bacterial communities help us understand the feedback mechanism of bacteria to changes in the aquatic environment. The Fuhe River plays an important role in determining the water ecological environment of Baiyangdian Lake. 16S rRNA gene sequencing was used to study the microbial distribution characteristics in the Fuhe River in different seasons.

Meteorological factors and tick density affect the dynamics of SFTS in jiangsu province, China.

Background: This study aimed to explore whether the transmission routes of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) will be affected by tick density and meteorological factors, and to explore the factors that affect the transmission of SFTS. We used the transmission dynamics model to calculate the transmission rate coefficients of different transmission routes of SFTS, and used the generalized additive model to uncover how meteorological factors and tick density affect the spread of SFTS.

Methods: In this study, the time-varying infection rate coefficients of different transmission routes of SFTS in Jiangsu Province from 2017 to 2020 were calculated based on the previous multi-population multi-route dynamic model (MMDM) of SFTS.

Distribution, ecological risk assessment and source identification of pollutants in soils of different land-use types in degraded wetlands.

Background: Urbanization and global warming are generating ecological degradation and land pattern alteration problems in natural wetlands. These changes are greatly affecting the ecological services of wetlands. Therefore, there is an urgent need to explore the relationship between pollutants and land-use type for wetland restoration purposes.

Study of Risk Factors for Total Attack Rate and Transmission Dynamics of Norovirus Outbreaks, Jiangsu Province, China, From 2012 to 2018.

To describe the epidemiological characteristics of norovirus outbreaks in Jiangsu Province, utilize the total attack rate () and transmissibility ( ) as the measurement indicators of the outbreak, and a statistical difference in risk factors associated with and transmissibility was compared. Ultimately, this study aimed to provide scientific suggestions to develop the most appropriate prevention and control measures. We collected epidemiological data from investigation reports of all norovirus outbreaks in Jiangsu Province from 2012 to 2018 and performed epidemiological descriptions, sequenced the genes of the positive specimens collected that were eligible for sequencing, created a database and calculated the , constructed SEIAR and SEIARW transmission dynamic models to calculate , and performed statistical analyses of risk factors associated with the and .

Epidemiological Characteristics and Transmissibility of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Nanning City, China, 2001-2020.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a single-stranded RNA virus that can weaken the body's cellular and humoral immunity and is a serious disease without specific drug management and vaccine. This study aimed to evaluate the epidemiologic characteristics and transmissibility of HIV. Data on HIV follow-up were collected in Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous, China.

The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China.

Background: Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China.

Methods: We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020.

The transmission dynamics of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus.

Background: In this study, we aimed to quantify the contribution of different transmission routes of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and determine its transmissibility.

Methods: Based on the natural history and transmission features of MERS in different countries, a susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/death (SEIARD) model and a multi-route dynamic model (MMDM). The SEIARD model and MMDM were adopted to simulate MERS in South Korea and Saudi Arabia, respectively.

Feasibility of Booster Vaccination in High-Risk Populations for Controlling Coronavirus Variants - China, 2021.

Introduction: Vaccination booster shots are completely necessary for controlling breakthrough infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China. The study aims to estimate effectiveness of booster vaccines for high-risk populations (HRPs).

Methods: A vaccinated Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to simulate scenarios of effective reproduction number ( ) from 4 to 6.

Investigation and analysis on an outbreak of norovirus infection in a health school in Guangdong Province, China.

Our objective was to describe the epidemiological features of an outbreak of norovirus infection in a health school in Guangdong province, China, to identify the cause of such a large scale outbreak of norovirus among older students, to simulate the transmission dynamics, and to evaluate the effect of intervention measures of GII.17 [P17] genotype norovirus infection. We identified all cases during the outbreak.

Hepatitis E in 24 Chinese Cities, 2008-2018: A New Analysis Method for the Disease's Occupational Characteristics.

The disease burden of hepatitis E remains high. We used a new method (richness, diversity, evenness, and similarity analyses) to classify cities according to the occupational classification of hepatitis E patients across regions in China and compared the results of cluster analysis. Data on reported hepatitis E cases from 2008 to 2018 were collected from 24 cities (9 in Jilin Province, 13 in Jiangsu Province, Xiamen City, and Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture).

Impact of interventions on the incidence of natural focal diseases during the outbreak of COVID-19 in Jiangsu Province, China.

Background: During the period of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, strong intervention measures, such as lockdown, travel restriction, and suspension of work and production, may have curbed the spread of other infectious diseases, including natural focal diseases. In this study, we aimed to study the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the reported incidence of natural focal diseases (brucellosis, malaria, hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome [HFRS], dengue, severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome [SFTS], rabies, tsutsugamushi and Japanese encephalitis [JE]).

Methods: The data on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases and natural focal disease cases were collected from Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jiangsu Provincial CDC).

Containing the Transmission of COVID-19: A Modeling Study in 160 Countries.

It is much valuable to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevention and control in the non-pharmacological intervention phase of the pandemic across countries and identify useful experiences that could be generalized worldwide. In this study, we developed a susceptible-exposure-infectious-asymptomatic-removed (SEIAR) model to fit the daily reported COVID-19 cases in 160 countries. The time-varying reproduction number ( ) that was estimated through fitting the mathematical model was adopted to quantify the transmissibility.

Estimating the Transmissibility of Mumps: A Modelling Study in Wuhan City, China.

Despite the adoption of a national immunization program in China, the incidence of mumps remains high. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics, including the time, region, occupation, and age, of mumps in Wuhan from 2005 to 2018 and to evaluate its transmissibility. In this study, the susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model fitted the actual incidence data of mumps.

Estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C: A modelling study in Yichang City, China.

Yichang is a city in central China in the Hubei Province. This study aimed to estimate the dynamics of the transmissibility of hepatitis C using a mathematical model and predict the transmissibility of hepatitis C in 2030. Data of hepatitis C cases from 13 counties or districts (cities) in Yichang from 2008 to 2016 were collected.

Feasibility of controlling hepatitis E in Jiangsu Province, China: a modelling study.

Background: Hepatitis E, an acute zoonotic disease caused by the hepatitis E virus (HEV), has a relatively high burden in developing countries. The current research model on hepatitis E mainly uses experimental animal models (such as pigs, chickens, and rabbits) to explain the transmission of HEV. Few studies have developed a multi-host and multi-route transmission dynamic model (MHMRTDM) to explore the transmission feature of HEV.

Relative transmissibility of shigellosis among different age groups: A modeling study in Hubei Province, China.

Shigellosis is a heavy disease burden in China especially in children aged under 5 years. However, the age-related factors involved in transmission of shigellosis are unclear. An age-specific Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model was applied to shigellosis surveillance data maintained by Hubei Province Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2005 to 2017.

Modelling the transmission dynamics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China.

Background: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease that is regionally distributed in Asia, with high fatality. Constructing the transmission model of SFTS could help provide clues for disease control and fill the gap in research on SFTS models.

Methods: We built an SFTS transmission dynamics model based on the susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model and the epidemiological characteristics of SFTS in Jiangsu Province.

Effectiveness of potential antiviral treatments in COVID-19 transmission control: a modelling study.

Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy.

Early warning of hand, foot, and mouth disease transmission: A modeling study in mainland, China.

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global infectious disease; particularly, it has a high disease burden in China. This study was aimed to explore the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease by analyzing its epidemiological characteristics, and to calculate the early warning signals of HFMD by using a logistic differential equation (LDE) model.

Methods: This study included datasets of HFMD cases reported in seven regions in Mainland China.

Meteorological Factors and the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Xiamen City, China.

As an emerging infectious disease, the prevention and control of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) poses a significant challenge to the development of public health in China. In this study, we aimed to explore the mechanism of the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD and to reveal the correlation and potential path between key meteorological factors and the transmissibility of HFMD. Combined with daily meteorological data such as average temperature, average relative humidity, average wind velocity, amount of precipitation, average air pressure, evaporation capacity, and sunshine duration, a database of HFMD incidence and meteorological factors was established.

Dengue fever transmission between a construction site and its surrounding communities in China.

Background: Due to an increase in mosquito habitats and the lack facilities to carry out basic mosquito control, construction sites in China are more likely to experience secondary dengue fever infection after importation of an initial infection, which may then increase the number of infections in the neighboring communities and the chance of community transmission. The aim of this study was to investigate how to effectively reduce the transmission of dengue fever at construction sites and the neighboring communities.

Methods: The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered (SEIAR) model of human and SEI model of mosquitoes were developed to estimate the transmission of dengue virus between humans and mosquitoes within the construction site and within a neighboring community, as well between each of these.

The transmissibility of hepatitis C virus: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China.

This study aimed at estimating the transmissibility of hepatitis C. The data for hepatitis C cases were collected in six districts in Xiamen City, China from 2004 to 2018. A population-mixed susceptible-infectious-chronic-recovered (SICR) model was used to fit the data and the parameters of the model were calculated.