Insights into COVID-19 epidemiology and control from temporal changes in serial interval distributions in Hong Kong.

The serial interval distribution is used to approximate the generation time distribution, an essential parameter to infer the transmissibility (${R}_t$) of an epidemic. However, serial interval distributions may change as an epidemic progresses. We examined detailed contact tracing data on laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Hong Kong during the five waves from January 2020 to July 2022.

The maximum capability of a topological feature in link prediction.

Networks offer a powerful approach to modeling complex systems by representing the underlying set of pairwise interactions. Link prediction is the task that predicts links of a network that are not directly visible, with profound applications in biological, social, and other complex systems. Despite intensive utilization of the topological feature in this task, it is unclear to what extent a feature can be leveraged to infer missing links.

COVID-19 spreading patterns in family clusters reveal gender roles in China.

Understanding different gender roles forms part of the efforts to reduce gender inequality. This paper analyses COVID-19 family clusters outside Hubei Province in mainland China during the 2020 outbreak, revealing significant differences in spreading patterns across gender and family roles. Results show that men are more likely to be the imported cases of a family cluster, and women are more likely to be infected within the family.

The Impact of Spring Festival Travel on Epidemic Spreading in China.

The large population movement during the Spring Festival travel in China can considerably accelerate the spread of epidemics, especially after the relaxation of strict control measures against COVID-19. This study aims to assess the impact of population migration in Spring Festival holiday on epidemic spread under different scenarios. Using inter-city population movement data, we construct the population flow network during the non-holiday time as well as the Spring Festival holiday.

Protocol for the automatic extraction of epidemiological information via a pre-trained language model.

The lack of systems to automatically extract epidemiological fields from open-access COVID-19 cases restricts the timeliness of formulating prevention measures. Here we present a protocol for using CCIE, a COVID-19 Cases Information Extraction system based on the pre-trained language model. We describe steps for preparing supervised training data and executing python scripts for named entity recognition and text category classification.

The shock, the coping, the resilience: smartphone application use reveals Covid-19 lockdown effects on human behaviors.

Unlabelled: Human mobility restriction policies have been widely used to contain the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19). However, a critical question is how these policies affect individuals' behavioral and psychological well-being during and after confinement periods. Here, we analyze China's five most stringent city-level lockdowns in 2021, treating them as natural experiments that allow for examining behavioral changes in millions of people through smartphone application use.

Inferring time-varying generation time, serial interval, and incubation period distributions for COVID-19.

The generation time distribution, reflecting the time between successive infections in transmission chains, is a key epidemiological parameter for describing COVID-19 transmission dynamics. However, because exact infection times are rarely known, it is often approximated by the serial interval distribution. This approximation holds under the assumption that infectors and infectees share the same incubation period distribution, which may not always be true.

Prediction of upcoming global infection burden of influenza seasons after relaxation of public health and social measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study.

Background: The transmission dynamics of influenza were affected by public health and social measures (PHSMs) implemented globally since early 2020 to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to assess the effect of COVID-19 PHSMs on the transmissibility of influenza viruses and to predict upcoming influenza epidemics.

Methods: For this modelling study, we used surveillance data on influenza virus activity for 11 different locations and countries in 2017-22.

Epidemiologic information discovery from open-access COVID-19 case reports via pretrained language model.

Although open-access data are increasingly common and useful to epidemiological research, the curation of such datasets is resource-intensive and time-consuming. Despite the existence of a major source of COVID-19 data, the regularly disclosed case reports were often written in natural language with an unstructured format. Here, we propose a computational framework that can automatically extract epidemiological information from open-access COVID-19 case reports.

Mitigating COVID-19 Transmission in Schools With Digital Contact Tracing.

Precision mitigation of COVID-19 is in pressing need for postpandemic time with the absence of pharmaceutical interventions. In this study, the effectiveness and cost of digital contact tracing (DCT) technology-based on-campus mitigation strategy are studied through epidemic simulations using high-resolution empirical contact networks of teachers and students. Compared with traditional class, grade, and school closure strategies, the DCT-based strategy offers a practical yet much more efficient way of mitigating COVID-19 spreading in the crowded campus.

Why cannot long-term cascade be predicted? Exploring temporal dynamics in information diffusion processes.

Predicting information cascade plays a crucial role in various applications such as advertising campaigns, emergency management and infodemic controlling. However, predicting the scale of an information cascade in the long-term could be difficult. In this study, we take Weibo, a Twitter-like online social platform, as an example, exhaustively extract predictive features from the data, and use a conventional machine learning algorithm to predict the information cascade scales.

Serial Intervals and Case Isolation Delays for Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Estimates of the serial interval distribution contribute to our understanding of the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, we aimed to summarize the existing evidence on serial interval distributions and delays in case isolation for COVID-19.

Methods: We conducted a systematic review of the published literature and preprints in PubMed on 2 epidemiological parameters, namely, serial intervals and delay intervals relating to isolation of cases for COVID-19 from 1 January 2020 to 22 October 2020 following predefined eligibility criteria.

Mobility, exposure, and epidemiological timelines of COVID-19 infections in China outside Hubei province.

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is pseudonymously linked to more than 100 million cases in the world as of January 2021. High-quality data are needed but lacking in the understanding of and fighting against COVID-19. We provide a complete and updating hand-coded line-list dataset containing detailed information of the cases in China and outside the epicenter in Hubei province.

Multiscale mobility explains differential associations between the gross domestic product and COVID-19 transmission in Chinese cities.

In this letter, we find a Simpson’s paradox in the association between GDP and COVID-19 transmission in Chinese cities stratified by location. The differential associations in cities within and outside Hubei province can be explained by different patterns of short-range and long-range multiscale mobility from Wuhan to other cities.

Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2.

Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions.

Studies of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters, including serial interval distributions-i.e., the time between illness onset in successive cases in a transmission chain-and reproduction numbers.

Reconstruction of Transmission Pairs for Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Mainland China: Estimation of Superspreading Events, Serial Interval, and Hazard of Infection.

Background: Knowledge on the epidemiological features and transmission patterns of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is accumulating. Detailed line-list data with household settings can advance the understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics.

Methods: A unique database with detailed demographic characteristics, travel history, social relationships, and epidemiological timelines for 1407 transmission pairs that formed 643 transmission clusters in mainland China was reconstructed from 9120 COVID-19 confirmed cases reported during 15 January-29 February 2020.

Household transmissions of SARS-CoV-2 in the time of unprecedented travel lockdown in China.

Importance: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in the city of Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and then spread globally. Limited information is available for characterizing epidemiological features and transmission patterns in the regions outside of Hubei Province. Detailed data on transmission at the individual level could be an asset to understand the transmission mechanisms and respective patterns in different settings.

Network embedding for link prediction: The pitfall and improvement.

Link prediction plays a significant role in various applications of complex networks. The existing link prediction methods can be divided into two categories: structural similarity algorithms in network domain and network embedding algorithms in the field of machine learning. However, few researchers focus on comparing these two categories of algorithms and exploring the intrinsic relationship between them.

Quantifying the Effects of Topology and Weight for Link Prediction in Weighted Complex Networks.

In weighted networks, both link weight and topological structure are significant characteristics for link prediction. In this study, a general framework combining null models is proposed to quantify the impact of the topology, weight correlation and statistics on link prediction in weighted networks. Three null models for topology and weight distribution of weighted networks are presented.

Measuring multiple evolution mechanisms of complex networks.

Numerous concise models such as preferential attachment have been put forward to reveal the evolution mechanisms of real-world networks, which show that real-world networks are usually jointly driven by a hybrid mechanism of multiplex features instead of a single pure mechanism. To get an accurate simulation for real networks, some researchers proposed a few hybrid models by mixing multiple evolution mechanisms. Nevertheless, how a hybrid mechanism of multiplex features jointly influence the network evolution is not very clear.

Impacts of subsidy policies on vaccination decisions in contact networks.

To motivate more people to participate in vaccination campaigns, various subsidy policies are often supplied by government and the health sectors. However, these external incentives may also alter the vaccination decisions of the broader public, and hence the choice of incentive needs to be carefully considered. Since human behavior and the networking-constrained interactions among individuals significantly impact the evolution of an epidemic, here we consider the voluntary vaccination on human contact networks.

Generating self-organizing collective behavior using separation dynamics from experimental data.

Mathematical models for systems of interacting agents using simple local rules have been proposed and shown to exhibit emergent swarming behavior. Most of these models are constructed by intuition or manual observations of real phenomena, and later tuned or verified to simulate desired dynamics. In contrast to this approach, we propose using a model that attempts to follow an averaged rule of the essential distance-dependent collective behavior of real pigeon flocks, which was abstracted from experimental data.

Dynamical modeling of collective behavior from pigeon flight data: flock cohesion and dispersion.

Several models of flocking have been promoted based on simulations with qualitatively naturalistic behavior. In this paper we provide the first direct application of computational modeling methods to infer flocking behavior from experimental field data. We show that this approach is able to infer general rules for interaction, or lack of interaction, among members of a flock or, more generally, any community.