Long-term economic growth stimulus of human capital preservation in the elderly.

Health care is a crucial factor in US economic growth, because growing health care costs have made US corporations less competitive than their counterparts in countries where central governments assume most of those costs. In this paper we illustrate a second, possibly more powerful, effect of health care expenditures on the long term pace of US economic growth, i.e.

NIH funding trajectories and their correlations with US health dynamics from 1950 to 2004.

To determine optimal future National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding levels, the longitudinal correlation of the level of investment in NIH research with population changes in the risk of specific diseases should be analyzed. This is because NIH research is the primary source of new therapies and treatments for major chronic diseases, many of which were viewed as relatively untreatable in the 1950s. NIH research is also important in developing preventative and screening strategies to support public health interventions.

Cohort changes in active life expectancy in the U.S. elderly population: experience from the 1982-2004 National Long-Term Care Survey.

Objectives: To understand declines in chronic disability prevalence in the U.S. elderly population, we examined cohort changes in active life expectancy, a health measure relating population disability and longevity dynamics.

Medicare cost effects of recent U.S. disability trends in the elderly: future implications.

Objective: The authors examine how trends in disability prevalence and in inflation-adjusted per capita, per annum Medicare costs, 1982 to 1999 and 1989 to 1999, affected total Medicare costs projected to 2004 and 2009.

Method: To describe disability trends, the authors applied grade of membership analyses to 27 measures of disability from the 1982 to 1999 National Long Term Care Surveys (NLTCS). This identified seven disability profiles for which individual scores were calculated.

Change in chronic disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as measured by long-term changes in function and health in the U.S. elderly population.

Changes in the health and functioning of the Medicare-enrolled population aged 65+ are tracked by using the 1982-2004/2005 National Long-Term Care Surveys. We found a significant rate of decline in the prevalence of chronic disability that accelerated from 1982 to 2004. These declines are significant for both persons with less severe chronic disability, which might be compensated by modifying the built environment and providing assistive devices, and for persons with more serious disability, which may be affected by reductions in the incidence and severity of disease through biomedical interventions.