Phenology varies with phylogeny but not by trophic level with climate change.

Shifts in phenology with climate change can lead to asynchrony between interacting species, with cascading impacts on ecosystem services. Previous meta-analyses have produced conflicting results on whether asynchrony has increased in recent decades, but the underlying data have also varied-including in species composition, interaction types and whether studies compared data grouped by trophic level or compared shifts in known interacting species pairs. Here, using updated data from previous studies and a Bayesian phylogenetic model, we found that species have advanced an average of 3.

Ecological drivers of flower-leaf sequences: aridity and proxies for pollinator attraction select for flowering-first in the American plums.

Across temperate forests, many tree species produce flowers before their leaves emerge. This flower-leaf phenological sequence, known as hysteranthy, is generally described as an adaptation for wind pollination. However, this explanation does not address why hysteranthy is also common in biotically pollinated taxa.

Weak evidence of provenance effects in spring phenology across Europe and North America.

Forecasting the biological impacts of climate change requires understanding how species respond to warmer temperatures through interannual flexible variation vs through adaptation to local conditions. Yet, we often lack this information entirely or find conflicting evidence across studies, which is the case for spring phenology. We synthesized common garden studies across Europe and North America that reported spring event dates for a mix of angiosperm and gymnosperm tree species in the northern hemisphere, capturing data from 384 North American and 101 European provenances (i.

The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: A case study in winegrapes.

Premise: Changes in habitat suitability due to climate change are causing range shifts, with new habitat potentially available at cold range edges. We must predict these range shifts, but forecasters have limited knowledge of how genetic differences in plant physiological tolerances influence range shifts. Here, we focus on a major determinant of species ranges-physiological tolerance to extreme cold-to ask how warming over recent decades and genetic variation shape expansion across complex landscapes.

Lack of evidence for the match-mismatch hypothesis across terrestrial trophic interactions.

Climate change has led to widespread shifts in the timing of key life history events between interacting species (phenological asynchrony) with hypothesized cascading negative fitness impacts on one or more of the interacting species-often termed 'mismatch'. Yet, predicting the types of systems prone to mismatch remains a major hurdle. Recent reviews have argued that many studies do not provide strong evidence of the underlying match-mismatch hypothesis, but none have quantitatively analysed support for it.

Flowering phenology influences butterfly nectar foraging on non-native plants in an oak savanna.

The negative impacts of non-native species have been well documented, but some non-natives can play a positive role in native ecosystems. One way that non-native plants can positively interact with native butterflies is by provisioning nectar. Relatively little is known about the role of phenology in determining native butterfly visitation to non-native plants for nectar, yet flowering time directly controls nectar availability.

Integrating experiments to predict interactive cue effects on spring phenology with warming.

Climate change has advanced plant phenology globally 4-6 d °C on average. Such shifts are some of the most reported and predictable biological impacts of rising temperatures. Yet as climate change has marched on, phenological shifts have appeared muted over recent decades - failing to match simple predictions of an advancing spring with continued warming.

A simple explanation for declining temperature sensitivity with warming.

Recently, multiple studies have reported declining phenological sensitivities (∆ days per ℃) with higher temperatures. Such observations have been used to suggest climate change is reshaping biological processes, with major implications for forecasts of future change. Here, we show that these results may simply be the outcome of using linear models to estimate nonlinear temperature responses, specifically for events that occur after a cumulative thermal threshold is met-a common model for many biological events.

How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments.

Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically - how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment - is linked to species performance and community structure.

Late spring freezes coupled with warming winters alter temperate tree phenology and growth.

Spring phenology is advancing with warming but late spring freezes may not advance at the same rate, potentially leading to an increase in freezes after trees initiate budburst. Research suggests warming winters may delay budburst through reduced chilling, which may cause plants to leafout more slowly, thus decreasing spring freeze tolerance. Here, we assessed the effects of late spring freezes and reduced over-winter chilling on sapling phenology, growth and tissue traits, across eight temperate tree and shrub species in a laboratory experiment.

Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change.

Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.

Climate change reshapes the drivers of false spring risk across European trees.

Temperate forests are shaped by late spring freezes after budburst - false springs - which may shift with climate change. Research to date has generated conflicting results, potentially because few studies focus on the multiple underlying drivers of false spring risk. Here, we assessed the effects of mean spring temperature, distance from the coast, elevation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using PEP725 leafout data for six tree species across 11 648 sites in Europe, to determine which were the strongest predictors of false spring risk and how these predictors shifted with climate change.

Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses.

Agrobiodiversity-the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices-is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood , 30, 531-539 (2015)].

Rethinking false spring risk.

Temperate plants are at risk of being exposed to late spring freezes. These freeze events-often called false springs-are one of the strongest factors determining temperate plants species range limits and can impose high ecological and economic damage. As climate change may alter the prevalence and severity of false springs, our ability to forecast such events has become more critical, and it has led to a growing body of research.

How do climate change experiments alter plot-scale climate?

To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data from 15 active-warming experiments.

Phenological sequences: how early-season events define those that follow.

Premise Of The Study: Plant phenology is a critical trait, as the timings of phenophases such as budburst, leafout, flowering, and fruiting, are important to plant fitness. Despite much study about when individual phenophases occur and how they may shift with climate change, little is known about how multiple phenophases relate to one another across an entire growing season. We test the extent to which early phenological stages constrain later ones, throughout a growing season, across 25 angiosperm tree species.

Temperature and photoperiod drive spring phenology across all species in a temperate forest community.

Accurate predictions of spring plant phenology with climate change are critical for projections of growing seasons, plant communities and a number of ecosystem services, including carbon storage. Progress towards prediction, however, has been slow because the major cues known to drive phenology - temperature (including winter chilling and spring forcing) and photoperiod - generally covary in nature and may interact, making accurate predictions of plant responses to climate change complex and nonlinear. Alternatively, recent work suggests many species may be dominated by one cue, which would make predictions much simpler.

Global shifts in the phenological synchrony of species interactions over recent decades.

Phenological responses to climate change (e.g., earlier leaf-out or egg hatch date) are now well documented and clearly linked to rising temperatures in recent decades.

Plant species' origin predicts dominance and response to nutrient enrichment and herbivores in global grasslands.

Exotic species dominate many communities; however the functional significance of species' biogeographic origin remains highly contentious. This debate is fuelled in part by the lack of globally replicated, systematic data assessing the relationship between species provenance, function and response to perturbations. We examined the abundance of native and exotic plant species at 64 grasslands in 13 countries, and at a subset of the sites we experimentally tested native and exotic species responses to two fundamental drivers of invasion, mineral nutrient supplies and vertebrate herbivory.

Shifting regimes and changing interactions in the Lake Washington, U.S.A., plankton community from 1962-1994.

Understanding how changing climate, nutrient regimes, and invasive species shift food web structure is critically important in ecology. Most analytical approaches, however, assume static species interactions and environmental effects across time. Therefore, we applied multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models in a moving window context to test for shifting plankton community interactions and effects of environmental variables on plankton abundance in Lake Washington, U.

Temporal ecology in the Anthropocene.

Two fundamental axes - space and time - shape ecological systems. Over the last 30 years spatial ecology has developed as an integrative, multidisciplinary science that has improved our understanding of the ecological consequences of habitat fragmentation and loss. We argue that accelerating climate change - the effective manipulation of time by humans - has generated a current need to build an equivalent framework for temporal ecology.

Phenological niches and the future of invaded ecosystems with climate change.

In recent years, research in invasion biology has focused increasing attention on understanding the role of phenology in shaping plant invasions. Multiple studies have found non-native species that tend to flower distinctly early or late in the growing season, advance more with warming or have shifted earlier with climate change compared with native species. This growing body of literature has focused on patterns of phenological differences, but there is a need now for mechanistic studies of how phenology contributes to invasions.