Productivity of mother pigs is lower, and mortality greater, in countries that still confine them in gestation crates.

: For decades, pig farmers have used gestation crates to confine pregnant sows. Gestation crates physically restrain sows for most of their life, preventing them from walking or turning around. Growing concern about animal welfare has been pressuring the industry for change, with recent legislation in several countries restricting the use of crates.

Pain-Track: a time-series approach for the description and analysis of the burden of pain.

Objective: To present the Pain-Track, a novel framework for the description and analysis of the pain experience based on its temporal evolution, around which intensity and other attributes of pain (texture, anatomy), interventions and clinical symptoms can be registered. This time-series approach can provide valuable insight on the expected evolution of the pain typically associated with different medical conditions and on time-varying (risk) factors associated with the temporal dynamics of pain.

Results: We illustrate the use of the framework to explore hypotheses on the temporal profile of the pain associated with an acute injury (bone fracture), and the magnitude of the pain burden it represents.

Laying hen mortality in different indoor housing systems: a meta-analysis of data from commercial farms in 16 countries.

Societal concern with the welfare of egg laying hens housed in conventional cages is fostering a transition towards cage-free systems in many countries. However, although cage-free facilities enable hens to move freely and express natural behaviours, concerns have also been raised over the possibility that cage-free flocks experience higher mortality, potentially compromising some aspects of their welfare. To investigate this possibility, we conducted a large meta-analysis of laying hen mortality in conventional cages, furnished cages and cage-free aviaries using data from 6040 commercial flocks and 176 million hens from 16 countries.

Respiratory syncytial virus causes more hospitalizations and deaths in equatorial Brazil than influenza (including during the 2009 pandemic).

Despite numerous studies evaluating influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), there is still a lack of knowledge about them, especially in tropical countries. We compared the relative importance of respiratory viruses by examining their spatiotemporal patterns, age-specific hospitalization data and mortality data for 2007-2012 obtained from official sources. The data were aggregated into "respiratory infection seasonal zones" formed combining states that had similar seasonal patterns of pneumonia and influenza (P&I).

Comparison of malaria incidence rates and socioeconomic-environmental factors between the states of Acre and Rondônia: a spatio-temporal modelling study.

Background: Plasmodium falciparum malaria is a threat to public health, but Plasmodium vivax malaria is most prevalent in Latin America, where the incidence rate has been increasing since 2016, particularly in Venezuela and Brazil. The Brazilian Amazon reported 193,000 cases in 2017, which were mostly confirmed as P. vivax (~ 90%).

Effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction on childhood pneumonia mortality in Brazil: a retrospective observational study.

Background: Understanding the real-world effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) on pneumonia mortality is crucial because of the expectation that increased PCV use will substantially reduce the burden of pneumonia deaths in children younger than 5 years. However, few post-vaccine introduction studies have estimated the benefits of PCV use on childhood mortality and results have been inconsistent. Therefore, we set out to assess the effect of introduction of ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) on pneumonia mortality in children in Brazil.

We could learn much more from 1918 pandemic-the (mis)fortune of research relying on original death certificates.

Purpose: The analysis of historical death certificates has enormous potential for understanding how the health of populations was shaped by diseases and epidemics and by the implementation of specific interventions. In Brazil, the systematic archiving of mortality records was initiated only in 1944-hence the analysis of death registers before this time requires searching for these documents in public archives, notaries, parishes, and especially ancient cemeteries, which are often the only remaining source of information about these deaths. This article describes an effort to locate original death certificates in Brazil and document their organization, accessibility, and preservation.

Both hemispheric influenza vaccine recommendations would have missed near half of the circulating viruses in Madagascar.

Background: Influenza immunization still poses a critical challenge globally and specifically for tropical regions due to their complex influenza circulation pattern. Tropical regions should select the WHO's Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere recommended vaccine composition based on local surveillance. Analyses of influenza immunization effectiveness have neglected to account for the proportion of circulating viruses prevented from causing infection each year.

Rotavirus vaccination takes seasonal signature of childhood diarrhea back to pre-sanitation era in Brazil.

Objectives: This study aimed to examine the previously unknown long-term spatio-temporal patterns in diarrheal morbidity and mortality across age groups and geography in Brazil under the light of evolving socioeconomic factors and interventions.

Methods: Nationwide mortality (1979-2014) and hospitalization (1998-2014) data were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Analyses of long-term secular trends and seasonality of diarrheal morbidity and mortality were performed in EPIPOI (www.

The spatiotemporal characteristics of influenza A and B in the WHO European Region: can one define influenza transmission zones in Europe?

We aimed to assess the epidemiology and spatiotemporal patterns of influenza in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region and evaluate the validity of partitioning the Region into five influenza transmission zones (ITZs) as proposed by the WHO. We used the FluNet database and included over 650,000 influenza cases from 2000 to 2015. We analysed the data by country and season (from July to the following June).

Influenza seasonality goes south in the Yucatan Peninsula: The case for a different influenza vaccine calendar in this Mexican region.

Introduction: While vaccination may be relatively straightforward for regions with a well-defined winter season, the situation is quite different for tropical regions. Influenza activity in tropical regions might be out of phase with the dynamics predicted for their hemispheric group thereby impacting the effectiveness of the immunization campaign.

Objective: To investigate how the climatic diversity of Mexico hinders its existing influenza immunization strategy and to suggest that the hemispheric vaccine recommendations be tailored to the regional level in order to optimize vaccine effectiveness.

Characteristics of seasonal influenza A and B in Latin America: Influenza surveillance data from ten countries.

Introduction: The increased availability of influenza surveillance data in recent years justifies an actual and more complete overview of influenza epidemiology in Latin America. We compared the influenza surveillance systems and assessed the epidemiology of influenza A and B, including the spatio-temporal patterns of influenza epidemics, in ten countries and sub-national regions in Latin America.

Methods: We aggregated the data by year and country and characteristics of eighty-two years were analysed.

A global map of hemispheric influenza vaccine recommendations based on local patterns of viral circulation.

Both the Northern and the Southern Hemisphere annual WHO influenza vaccine recommendations are designed to ensure vaccine delivery before the winter-time peak of viral circulation in each hemisphere. However, influenza seasonal patterns are highly diverse in tropical countries and may be out of phase with the WHO recommendations for their respective hemisphere. We modelled the peak timing of influenza activity for 125 countries using laboratory-based surveillance data from the WHO's FLUNET database and compared it with the influenza hemispheric recommendations in place.

Modeling the Impact of Alternative Immunization Strategies: Using Matrices as Memory Lanes.

Existing modeling approaches are divided between a focus on the constitutive (micro) elements of systems or on higher (macro) organization levels. Micro-level models enable consideration of individual histories and interactions, but can be unstable and subject to cumulative errors. Macro-level models focus on average population properties, but may hide relevant heterogeneity at the micro-scale.

Beyond crystal balls: crosscutting solutions in global health to prepare for an unpredictable future.

Background: Efforts in global heath need to deal not only with current challenges, but also to anticipate new scenarios, which sometimes unfold at lightning speed. Predictive modeling is frequently used to assist planning, but outcomes depend heavily on a subset of critical assumptions, which are mostly hampered by our limited knowledge about the many factors, mechanisms and relationships that determine the dynamics of disease systems, by a lack of data to parameterize and validate models, and by uncertainties about future scenarios.

Discussion: We propose a shift from a focus on the prediction of individual disease patterns to the identification and mitigation of broader fragilities in public health systems.

Evolution of bright colours in animals: worlds of prohibition and oblivion.

Because the ability to hide in plain sight provides a major selective advantage to both prey and predator species, the emergence of the striking colouration of some animal species (such as many coral reef fish) represents an evolutionary conundrum that remains unsolved to date. Here I propose a framework by which conspicuous colours can emerge when the selective pressures for camouflage are relaxed (1) because camouflage is not essential under specific prey/predator conditions or (2) due to the impossibility of reducing the signal-to-background noise in the environment. The first case is found among non-predator-species that possess effective defences against predators (hence a "Carefree World"), such as the strong macaws' beaks and the flight abilities of hummingbirds.

Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.

Background: The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries.

Objectives: We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar.

Environmental drivers of the spatiotemporal dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in the United States.

Epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are known to occur in wintertime in temperate countries including the United States, but there is a limited understanding of the importance of climatic drivers in determining the seasonality of RSV. In the United States, RSV activity is highly spatially structured, with seasonal peaks beginning in Florida in November through December and ending in the upper Midwest in February-March, and prolonged disease activity in the southeastern US. Using data on both age-specific hospitalizations and laboratory reports of RSV in the US, and employing a combination of statistical and mechanistic epidemic modeling, we examined the association between environmental variables and state-specific measures of RSV seasonality.

Characterization of regional influenza seasonality patterns in China and implications for vaccination strategies: spatio-temporal modeling of surveillance data.

Background: The complexity of influenza seasonal patterns in the inter-tropical zone impedes the establishment of effective routine immunization programs. China is a climatologically and economically diverse country, which has yet to establish a national influenza vaccination program. Here we characterize the diversity of influenza seasonality in China and make recommendations to guide future vaccination programs.

Influence of pneumococcal vaccines and respiratory syncytial virus on alveolar pneumonia, Israel.

Postlicensure surveillance of pneumonia incidence can be used to estimate whether pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) affect incidence. We used Poisson regression models that control for baseline seasonality to determine the impact of PCVs and the possible effects of variations in virus activity in Israel on these surveillance estimates. PCV was associated with significant declines in radiologically confirmed alveolar pneumonia (RCAP) among patients <6 months, 6-17 months, and 18-35 months of age (-31% [95% CI -51% to -15%], -41% [95% CI -52 to -32%], and -34% [95% CI -42% to -25%], respectively).

Environmental predictors of seasonal influenza epidemics across temperate and tropical climates.

Human influenza infections exhibit a strong seasonal cycle in temperate regions. Recent laboratory and epidemiological evidence suggests that low specific humidity conditions facilitate the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus in temperate regions, resulting in annual winter epidemics. However, this relationship is unlikely to account for the epidemiology of influenza in tropical and subtropical regions where epidemics often occur during the rainy season or transmit year-round without a well-defined season.

Latitudinal variations in seasonal activity of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): a global comparative review.

Background: There is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there is renewed interest in understanding the seasonal drivers of respiratory viruses.

Methods: We review geographic variations in seasonality of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV epidemics in 137 global locations based on literature review and electronic sources. We assessed peak timing and epidemic duration and explored their association with geography and study settings.