The potential for AI to revolutionize conservation: a horizon scan.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an emerging tool that could be leveraged to identify the effective conservation solutions demanded by the urgent biodiversity crisis. We present the results of our horizon scan of AI applications likely to significantly benefit biological conservation. An international panel of conservation scientists and AI experts identified 21 key ideas.

A horizon scan of biological conservation issues for 2025.

We discuss the outcomes of our 16th horizon scan of issues that are novel or represent a considerable step-change and have the potential to substantially affect conservation of biological diversity in the coming decade. From an initial 96 topics, our international panel of 32 scientists and practitioners prioritised 15 issues. Technological advances are prominent, including metal and non-metal organic frameworks, deriving rare earth elements from macroalgae, synthetic gene drives in plants, and low-emission cement.

Mapping hazards to the global food system.

Environmental hazards associated with the global food system threaten societal integrity. Yet, there is a major data gap in the global understanding of how the prevalence of hazards is changing over time, how different classes of hazard are distributed, and whether the combined literature represents hazard prevalence equitably across research, policy and legislation, and news. Here, we explore this data gap, leveraging global research, policy, and news databases.

National commitments to Aichi Targets and their implications for monitoring the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

The Convention on Biological Biodiversity (CBD) exists as a major multilateral environmental agreement to safeguard biodiversity and "live in harmony with nature". To deliver it, strategies and frameworks are set out in regular agreements that are then implemented at the national scale. However, we are not on track to achieve overall goals, and frameworks so far have not been successful.

Movement of juvenile migratory birds from settlement to adulthood across the non-breeding range.

Among migratory vertebrates, high levels of fidelity to non-breeding sites during adulthood are common. If occupied sites vary in quality, strong site fidelity can have profound consequences for individual fitness and population demography. Given the prevalence of adult site fidelity, the regions of the non-breeding range to which juveniles first migrate, and the scale of any subsequent movements, are likely to be pivotal in shaping distributions and demographic processes across population ranges.

Sea stack plots: Replacing bar charts with histograms.

Graphs in research articles can increase the comprehension of statistical data but may mislead readers if poorly designed. We propose a new plot type, the sea stack plot, which combines vertical histograms and summary statistics to represent large univariate datasets accurately, usefully, and efficiently. We compare five commonly used plot types (dot and whisker plots, boxplots, density plots, univariate scatter plots, and dot plots) to assess their relative strengths and weaknesses when representing distributions of data commonly observed in biological studies.

A horizon scan of global biological conservation issues for 2024.

We present the results of our 15th horizon scan of novel issues that could influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial list of 96 issues, our international panel of scientists and practitioners identified 15 that we consider important for societies worldwide to track and potentially respond to. Issues are novel within conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step-change with global or regional extents.

Frugivore-mediated seed dispersal in fragmented landscapes: Compositional and functional turnover from forest to matrix.

Seed dispersal by frugivores is a fundamental function for plant community dynamics in fragmented landscapes, where forest remnants are typically embedded in a matrix of anthropogenic habitats. Frugivores can mediate both connectivity among forest remnants and plant colonization of the matrix. However, it remains poorly understood how frugivore communities change from forest to matrix due to the loss or replacement of species with traits that are less advantageous in open habitats and whether such changes ultimately influence the composition and traits of dispersed plants via species interactions.

AgroEcoList 1.0: A checklist to improve reporting standards in ecological research in agriculture.

Many publications lack sufficient background information (e.g. location) to be interpreted, replicated, or reused for synthesis.

A global biological conservation horizon scan of issues for 2023.

We present the results of our 14th horizon scan of issues we expect to influence biological conservation in the future. From an initial set of 102 topics, our global panel of 30 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues we consider most urgent for societies worldwide to address. Issues are novel within biological conservation or represent a substantial positive or negative step change at global or regional scales.

Foresight science in conservation: Tools, barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities.

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity.

A global horizon scan of issues impacting marine and coastal biodiversity conservation.

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years.

What is the Price of Conservation? A Review of the Status Quo and Recommendations for Improving Cost Reporting.

Wildlife conservation is severely limited by funding. Therefore, to maximize biodiversity outcomes, assessing financial costs of interventions is as important as assessing effectiveness. We reviewed the reporting of costs in studies testing the effectiveness of conservation interventions: 13.

Recommendations to enhance breeding bird diversity in managed plantation forests determined using LiDAR.

Widespread afforestation is a crucial component of climate mitigation strategies worldwide. This presents a significant opportunity for biodiversity conservation if forests are appropriately managed. Within forests, structural and habitat diversity are known to be critical for biodiversity but pragmatic management recommendations are lacking.

Protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, but management helps.

International policy is focused on increasing the proportion of the Earth's surface that is protected for nature. Although studies show that protected areas prevent habitat loss, there is a lack of evidence for their effect on species' populations: existing studies are at local scale or use simple designs that lack appropriate controls. Here we explore how 1,506 protected areas have affected the trajectories of 27,055 waterbird populations across the globe using a robust before-after control-intervention study design, which compares protected and unprotected populations in the years before and after protection.

Terrestrial or marine species distribution model: Why not both? A case study with seabirds.

Species reliant on both the terrestrial and marine realms present a challenge for conventional species distribution models (SDMs). For such species, standard single-realm SDMs may omit key information that could result in decreased model accuracy and performance. Existing approaches to habitat suitability modeling typically do not effectively combine information from multiple realms; this methodological gap can ultimately hamper management efforts for groups such as seabirds, seals, and turtles.

The data-index: An author-level metric that values impactful data and incentivizes data sharing.

Author-level metrics are a widely used measure of scientific success. The h-index and its variants measure publication output (number of publications) and research impact (number of citations). They are often used to influence decisions, such as allocating funding or jobs.

Reducing publication delay to improve the efficiency and impact of conservation science.

Evidence-based decision-making is most effective with comprehensive access to scientific studies. If studies face significant publication delays or barriers, the useful information they contain may not reach decision-makers in a timely manner. This represents a potential problem for mission-oriented disciplines where access to the latest data is required to ensure effective actions are undertaken.

Tapping into non-English-language science for the conservation of global biodiversity.

The widely held assumption that any important scientific information would be available in English underlies the underuse of non-English-language science across disciplines. However, non-English-language science is expected to bring unique and valuable scientific information, especially in disciplines where the evidence is patchy, and for emergent issues where synthesising available evidence is an urgent challenge. Yet such contribution of non-English-language science to scientific communities and the application of science is rarely quantified.