Probabilities for large events in driven threshold systems.

Many driven threshold systems display a spectrum of avalanche event sizes, often characterized by power-law scaling. An important problem is to compute probabilities of the largest events ("Black Swans"). We develop a data-driven approach to the problem by transforming to the event index frame, and relating this to Shannon information.

At the interface of phylogenetics and population genetics, the phylogeography of Dirca occidentalis (Thymelaeaceae).

Dirca occidentalis is a rare shrub indigenous to only six counties near the San Francisco Bay in California, United States. We used intersimple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers and automated genotyping to probe 29 colonies of D. occidentalis from four geographically disjunct populations (East Bay, North Bay, Salmon Creek, and Peninsula) and used methods of phylogenetics and population genetics to model variation across the species.