Publications by authors named "William John Edmunds"
Background: HIV transmission in men who have sex with men (MSM) in the UK has shown no sign of decreasing in the past decade. Additional prevention measures are needed. We aimed to estimate the effect of various potential interventions implemented individually and in combination on prevention of HIV infection.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFObjectives: HIV is a major public health problem among MSM in the United Kingdom with around 2400 new infections annually. We quantified the contribution of biological and behavioural factors.
Design: Modelling study.
Background: Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are highly effective at preventing severe rotavirus disease. Rotavirus vaccination has been introduced in the United Kingdom and other countries partly based on modeling and cost-effectiveness results. However, most of these models fail to account for the uncertainty about several vaccine characteristics and the mechanism of vaccine action.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: The seasonal influenza vaccination programme in England targets individuals over 65 years old and in clinical risk groups.
Methods: A model of influenza transmission and disease was fitted to weekly primary care consultations due to influenza in a typical pre-pandemic season (2006/2007). Different scenarios were constructed about influenza severity and how well vaccines match circulating strains to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of the current vaccination programme.
For a quarter of century, mathematical models have been used to study the spread and control of HIV amongst men who have sex with men (MSM). We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE databases up to the end of 2010 and reviewed this literature to summarise the methodologies used, key model developments, and the recommended strategies for HIV control amongst MSM. Of 742 studies identified, 127 studies met the inclusion criteria.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFTwo rotavirus vaccines are currently recommended for inclusion in routine childhood immunization programmes. We developed a deterministic age-structured model of rotavirus transmission and disease to investigate the population-level effects of vaccination in England and Wales. The model explicitly captures the natural history of infection and uses realistic population mixing patterns.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFMany countries are considering vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV). However, the long-term impact of vaccination is difficult to predict due to uncertainty about the prevalence of HPV infection, pattern of sexual partnerships, progression of cervical neoplasias, accuracy of screening as well as the duration of infectiousness and immunity. Dynamic models of human papillomavirus (HPV) transmission were developed to describe the infection spread and development of cervical neoplasia, cervical cancer (squamous cell and adenocarcinoma) and anogenital warts.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFArticle Synopsis
- A Markov model was created to estimate how cervical lesions progress or regress in women with high-risk HPV, using data from a recent screening trial.
- The model considers various factors such as lesion regression, the accuracy of screening tests, and the prevalence of HPV in different age groups, leading to 162 scenarios for squamous cell carcinomas and 54 for adenocarcinomas.
- Simulation of unscreened women with high-risk HPV showed that the likelihood of infection leading to cancer varies based on how long the infection has lasted, helping to refine our understanding of HPV's natural history and its associated diseases.