An evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program using administrative payroll microdata.

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a principal element of the fiscal stimulus enacted by Congress in response to the COVID-19 economic shock, was intended to assist small businesses to maintain employment and wages during the crisis, as well as cover other expenses. We use high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP-one of the world's largest payroll processing firms-to estimate the causal effect of the PPP on the evolution of employment at PPP-eligible firms relative to PPP-ineligible firms, where eligibility is determined by industry-specific firm-size cutoffs. Our estimates indicate that the PPP boosted employment at eligible firms by between 2 percent to 5 percent at its peak effect around mid-May 2020.