Rising challenge of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in China: a predictive study using Markov modeling.

Background: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is on the rise in China. This study used a dynamic Markov model to predict the longitudinal trends of MDR-TB in China by 2050 and to assess the effects of alternative control measures.

Methods: Eight states of tuberculosis transmission were set up in the Markov model using a hypothetical cohort of 100 000 people.