Risk forecasting and evaluating model of environmental pollution accident.

Environmental risk (ER) factors come from ER source and they are controlled by the primary control mechanism (PCM) of environmental risk, due to the self failures or the effects of external environment risk trigger mechanism, the PCM could not work regularly any more, then, the ER factors will release environmental space, and an ER field is formed up. The forming of ER field does not mean that any environmental pollution accident (EPA) will break out; only the ER receptors are exposed in the ER field and damaged seriously, the potential ER really turns into an actual EPA. Researching on the general laws of evolving from environmental risk to EPA, this paper bring forwards a relevant concept model of risk forecasting and evaluating of EPA.