A molecular signature of the Nottingham prognostic index in breast cancer.

The Nottingham prognostic index (NPI) is a widely used clinicopathological staging system for breast cancer prognostication. Using a step-wise classification approach where breast tumor expression profiles were first divided into general "molecular subtypes" [estrogen receptor (ER)+, ER-, ERBB2+], followed by an independent analysis of each subtype, we identified a 62-gene expression signature (NPI-ES) highly correlated to the NPI in ER+ tumors. The NPI-ES classified the majority of ER+ tumors into two distinct groups with high confidence and was significantly correlated to NPI status in two independent sets of ER+ tumors derived from different centers.

Classifying the estrogen receptor status of breast cancers by expression profiles reveals a poor prognosis subpopulation exhibiting high expression of the ERBB2 receptor.

Recent work using expression profiling to computationally predict the estrogen receptor (ER) status of breast tumors has revealed that certain tumors are characterized by a high prediction uncertainty ('low-confidence'). We analyzed these 'low-confidence' tumors and determined that their 'uncertain' prediction status arises as a result of widespread perturbations in multiple genes whose expression is important for ER subtype discrimination. Patients with 'low-confidence' ER+ tumors exhibited a significantly worse overall survival (P=0.