Overestimate of committed warming.

Palaeoclimate variations are an essential component in constraining future projections of climate change as a function of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) describes the multi-millennial response of Earth (in terms of global mean temperature) to a doubling of CO concentrations. A recent study used a correlation of inferred temperatures and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases over the past 800,000 years to estimate the ESS from present day CO is about 9°C, and to imply a long-term commitment of 3–7°C even if greenhouse gas levels remain at present-day concentrations.

Human-induced changes in the distribution of rainfall.

A likely consequence of global warming will be the redistribution of Earth's rain belts, affecting water availability for many of Earth's inhabitants. We consider three ways in which planetary warming might influence the global distribution of precipitation. The first possibility is that rainfall in the tropics will increase and that the subtropics and mid-latitudes will become more arid.

Northward extent of East Asian monsoon covaries with intensity on orbital and millennial timescales.

The magnitude, rate, and extent of past and future East Asian monsoon (EAM) rainfall fluctuations remain unresolved. Here, late Pleistocene-Holocene EAM rainfall intensity is reconstructed using a well-dated northeastern China closed-basin lake area record located at the modern northwestern fringe of the EAM. The EAM intensity and northern extent alternated rapidly between wet and dry periods on time scales of centuries.

Rapid carbon mineralization for permanent disposal of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) provides a solution toward decarbonization of the global economy. The success of this solution depends on the ability to safely and permanently store CO2 This study demonstrates for the first time the permanent disposal of CO2 as environmentally benign carbonate minerals in basaltic rocks. We find that over 95% of the CO2 injected into the CarbFix site in Iceland was mineralized to carbonate minerals in less than 2 years.

Hydrologic impacts of past shifts of Earth's thermal equator offer insight into those to be produced by fossil fuel CO2.

Major changes in global rainfall patterns accompanied a northward shift of Earth's thermal equator at the onset of an abrupt climate change 14.6 kya. This northward pull of Earth's wind and rain belts stemmed from disintegration of North Atlantic winter sea ice cover, which steepened the interhemispheric meridional temperature gradient.

The deglacial evolution of North Atlantic deep convection.

Deepwater formation in the North Atlantic by open-ocean convection is an essential component of the overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean, which helps regulate global climate. We use water-column radiocarbon reconstructions to examine changes in northeast Atlantic convection since the Last Glacial Maximum. During cold intervals, we infer a reduction in open-ocean convection and an associated incursion of an extremely radiocarbon ((14)C)-depleted water mass, interpreted to be Antarctic Intermediate Water.

Ice age terminations.

230Th-dated oxygen isotope records of stalagmites from Sanbao Cave, China, characterize Asian Monsoon (AM) precipitation through the ends of the third- and fourthmost recent ice ages. As a result, AM records for the past four glacial terminations can now be precisely correlated with those from ice cores and marine sediments, establishing the timing and sequence of major events. In all four cases, observations are consistent with a classic Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity trigger for an initial retreat of northern ice sheets.

Interhemispheric Atlantic seesaw response during the last deglaciation.

The asynchronous relationship between millennial-scale temperature changes over Greenland and Antarctica during the last glacial period has led to the notion of a bipolar seesaw which acts to redistribute heat depending on the state of meridional overturning circulation within the Atlantic Ocean. Here we present new records from the South Atlantic that show rapid changes during the last deglaciation that were instantaneous (within dating uncertainty) and of opposite sign to those observed in the North Atlantic. Our results demonstrate a direct link between the abrupt changes associated with variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the more gradual adjustments characteristic of the Southern Ocean.

Ventilation of the glacial deep Pacific Ocean.

Measurements of the age difference between coexisting benthic and planktic foraminifera from western equatorial Pacific deep-sea cores suggest that during peak glacial time the radiocarbon age of water at 2-kilometers depth was no greater than that of today. These results make unlikely suggestions that a slowdown in deep-ocean ventilation was responsible for a sizable fraction of the increase of the ratio of carbon-14 (14C) to carbon in the atmosphere and surface ocean during glacial time. Comparison of 14C ages for coexisting wood and planktic foraminifera from the same site suggests that the atmosphere to surface ocean 14C to C ratio difference was not substantially different from today's.