Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the importance of mathematical modelling in informing and advising policy decision-making. Effective practice of mathematical modelling has challenges. These can be around the technical modelling framework and how different techniques are combined, the appropriate use of mathematical formalisms or computational languages to accurately capture the intended mechanism or process being studied, in transparency and robustness of models and numerical code, in simulating the appropriate scenarios via explicitly identifying underlying assumptions about the process in nature and simplifying approximations to facilitate modelling, in correctly quantifying the uncertainty of the model parameters and projections, in taking into account the variable quality of data sources, and applying established software engineering practices to avoid duplication of effort and ensure reproducibility of numerical results.

Compositional modelling of immune response and virus transmission dynamics.

Transmission models for infectious diseases are typically formulated in terms of dynamics between individuals or groups with processes such as disease progression or recovery for each individual captured phenomenologically, without reference to underlying biological processes. Furthermore, the construction of these models is often monolithic: they do not allow one to readily modify the processes involved or include the new ones, or to combine models at different scales. We show how to construct a simple model of immune response to a respiratory virus and a model of transmission using an easily modifiable set of rules allowing further refining and merging the two models together.

The Royal Society RAMP modelling initiative.

Normally, science proceeds following a well-established set of principles. Studies are done with an emphasis on correctness, are submitted to a journal editor who evaluates their relevance, and then undergo anonymous peer review by experts before publication in a journal and acceptance by the scientific community via the open literature. This process is slow, but its accuracy has served all fields of science well.

Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions.

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions.

Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK.

Some social settings such as households and workplaces, have been identified as high risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Identifying and quantifying the importance of these settings is critical for designing interventions. A tightly-knit religious community in the UK experienced a very large COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, reaching 64.

Modelling the impact of reopening schools in the UK in early 2021 in the presence of the alpha variant and with roll-out of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2.

Following the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in late 2020 and the emergence of the alpha (also known as B117) variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, a third national lockdown was imposed from January 4, 2021. Following the decline of COVID-19 cases over the remainder of January 2021, the question of when and how to reopen schools became an increasingly pressing one in early 2021. This study models the impact of a partial national lockdown with social distancing measures enacted in communities and workplaces under different strategies of reopening schools from March 8, 2021 and compares it to the impact of continual full national lockdown remaining until April 19, 2021.

Model Integration in Computational Biology: The Role of Reproducibility, Credibility and Utility.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of disease transmission has become a cornerstone of key state decisions. To advance the state-of-the-art host viral modeling to handle future pandemics, many scientists working on related issues assembled to discuss the topics. These discussions exposed the reproducibility crisis that leads to inability to reuse and integrate models.

Rule-based epidemic models.

Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in chemistry. An important class of system that would be intractable if expressed as reactions or ordinary differential equations can be efficiently simulated when expressed as rules. In this paper we demonstrate the utility of the rule-based approach for epidemiological modelling presenting a suite of seven models illustrating the spread of infectious disease under different scenarios: wearing masks, infection via fomites and prevention by hand-washing, the concept of vector-borne diseases, testing and contact tracing interventions, disease propagation within motif-structured populations with shared environments such as schools, and superspreading events.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK: A retrospective cohort study.

Background: Ethnic and religious minorities have been disproportionately affected by SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. The UK strictly-Orthodox Jewish community has been severely affected by the pandemic. This group shares characteristics with other ethnic minorities including larger family sizes, higher rates of household crowding and relative socioeconomic deprivation.

Modelling the potential impact of mask use in schools and society on COVID-19 control in the UK.

As the UK reopened after the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, crucial questions emerged around the role for ongoing interventions, including test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies and mandatory masks. Here we assess the importance of masks in secondary schools by evaluating their impact over September 1-October 23, 2020. We show that, assuming TTI levels from August 2020 and no fundamental changes in the virus's transmissibility, adoption of masks in secondary schools would have reduced the predicted size of a second wave, but preventing it would have required 68% or 46% of those with symptoms to seek testing (assuming masks' effective coverage 15% or 30% respectively).

Determining the level of social distancing necessary to avoid future COVID-19 epidemic waves: a modelling study for North East London.

Determining the level of social distancing, quantified here as the reduction in daily number of social contacts per person, i.e. the daily contact rate, needed to maintain control of the COVID-19 epidemic and not exceed acute bed capacity in case of future epidemic waves, is important for future planning of relaxing of strict social distancing measures.

Testing, tracing and isolation in compartmental models.

Existing compartmental mathematical modelling methods for epidemics, such as SEIR models, cannot accurately represent effects of contact tracing. This makes them inappropriate for evaluating testing and contact tracing strategies to contain an outbreak. An alternative used in practice is the application of agent- or individual-based models (ABM).

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.

Information Cascades and the Collapse of Cooperation.

In various types of structured communities newcomers choose their interaction partners by selecting a role-model and copying their social networks. Participants in these networks may be cooperators who contribute to the prosperity of the community, or cheaters who do not and simply exploit the cooperators. For newcomers it is beneficial to interact with cooperators but detrimental to interact with cheaters.

Emergence of structure in mouse embryos: Structural Entropy morphometry applied to digital models of embryonic anatomy.

We apply an information-theoretic measure to anatomical models of the Edinburgh Mouse Atlas Project. Our goal is to quantify the anatomical complexity of the embryo and to understand how this quantity changes as the organism develops through time. Our measure, Structural Entropy, takes into account the geometrical character of the intermingling of tissue types in the embryo.

Annotations for Rule-Based Models.

The chapter reviews the syntax to store machine-readable annotations and describes the mapping between rule-based modelling entities (e.g., agents and rules) and these annotations.

A Genetic Circuit Compiler: Generating Combinatorial Genetic Circuits with Web Semantics and Inference.

A central strategy of synthetic biology is to understand the basic processes of living creatures through engineering organisms using the same building blocks. Biological machines described in terms of parts can be studied by computer simulation in any of several languages or robotically assembled in vitro. In this paper we present a language, the Genetic Circuit Description Language (GCDL) and a compiler, the Genetic Circuit Compiler (GCC).

Annotation of rule-based models with formal semantics to enable creation, analysis, reuse and visualization.

Motivation: Biological systems are complex and challenging to model and therefore model reuse is highly desirable. To promote model reuse, models should include both information about the specifics of simulations and the underlying biology in the form of metadata. The availability of computationally tractable metadata is especially important for the effective automated interpretation and processing of models.

Open bibliography for science, technology, and medicine.

The concept of Open Bibliography in science, technology and medicine (STM) is introduced as a combination of Open Source tools, Open specifications and Open bibliographic data. An Openly searchable and navigable network of bibliographic information and associated knowledge representations, a Bibliographic Knowledge Network, across all branches of Science, Technology and Medicine, has been designed and initiated. For this large scale endeavour, the engagement and cooperation of the multiple stakeholders in STM publishing - authors, librarians, publishers and administrators - is sought.

Effect of small, acid-soluble proteins on spore resistance and germination under a combination of pressure and heat treatment.

To find the range of pressure required for effective high-pressure inactivation of bacterial spores and to investigate the role of alpha/beta-type small, acid-soluble proteins (SASP) in spores under pressure treatment, mild heat was combined with pressure (room temperature to 65 degrees C and 100 to 500 MPa) and applied to wild-type and SASP-alpha-/beta- Bacillus subtilis spores. On the one hand, more than 4 log units of wild-type spores were reduced after pressurization at 100 to 500 MPa and 65 degrees C. On the other hand, the number of surviving mutant spores decreased by 2 log units at 100 MPa and by more than 5 log units at 500 MPa.

Inactivation of escherichia coli 0157:H7 and Salmonella on mung beans, alfalfa, and other seed types destined for sprout production by using an oxychloro-based sanitizer.

The efficacy of a stabilized oxychloro-based food grade sanitizer to decontaminate seeds destined for sprout production has been evaluated. By using mung bean seeds as a model system, it was demonstrated that the sanitizer could be used to inactivate a five-strain cocktail of Escherichia coli O157:H7 or Salmonella introduced onto beans at 10(3) to 10(4) CFU/g. Salmonella was more tolerant to stabilized oxychloro than was E.

Interaction of Escherichia coli with growing salad spinach plants.

In this study, the interaction of a bioluminescence-labeled Escherichia coli strain with growing spinach plants was assessed. Through bioluminescence profiles, the direct visualization of E. coli growing around the roots of developing seedlings was accomplished.

Internalization of bioluminescent Escherichia coli and Salmonella Montevideo in growing bean sprouts.

Aims: Investigate the interaction of bioluminescent Escherichia coli and Salmonella Montevideo with germinating mung bean sprouts.

Methods And Results: E. coli or Salm.

The effect of acid shock on sporulating Bacillus subtilis cells.

Aims: To study the effect of acid shock in sporulation on the production of acid-shock proteins, and on the heat resistance and germination characteristics of the spores formed subsequently.

Methods And Results: Bacillus subtilis wild-type (SASP-alpha+beta+) and mutant (SASP-alpha-beta-) cells in 2 x SG medium at 30 degrees C were acid-shocked with HCl (pH 4, 4.3, 5 and 6 against a control pH of 6.