Extensive hypothesis testing for estimation of crash frequency models.

Estimating crash data count models poses a significant challenge which requires extensive knowledge, experience, and meticulous hypothesis testing to capture underlying trends. Simultaneous consideration of multiple modelling aspects is required including, among others, functional forms, likely contributing factors, and unobserved heterogeneity. However, model development, frequently affected by time and knowledge, can easily overlook crucial modelling aspects such as identification of likely contributing factors, necessary transformations, and distributional assumptions.

Multi-objective extensive hypothesis testing for the estimation of advanced crash frequency models.

Analyzing crash data is a complex and labor-intensive process that requires careful consideration of multiple interdependent modeling aspects, such as functional forms, transformations, likely contributing factors, correlations, and unobserved heterogeneity. Limited time, knowledge, and experience may lead to over-simplified, over-fitted, or misspecified models overlooking important insights. This paper proposes an extensive hypothesis testing framework including a multi-objective mathematical programming formulation and solution algorithms to estimate crash frequency models considering simultaneously likely contributing factors, transformations, non-linearities, and correlated random parameters.